USD firm but running into resistance

Happy New Year!

The consensus view for 2013 favours equities over bonds helped by expectations of a sustained improvement in risk appetite as tail risk diminishes further. Additionally relative valuations support the consensus. So far equities are on track although it may be a mistake to make a strong judgement based on the first week’s trading.

The US December jobs report provided more evidence that the US economy will trundle along this year at a modest pace of growth. Meanwhile, the US fiscal cliff agreement may have played into a tone of firmer risk appetite but the fact that in less than two months there may be even greater tensions on the debt ceiling and spending cuts suggest that a one way bet of improving risk appetite can by no means be guaranteed.

The USD has begun the year in firm shape appearing to break free from the constraint of improving risk appetite at the turn of the year. In part its strength especially against the JPY can be attributed to higher US bond yields which in turn was pushed higher by less dovish than expected Fed December 11-12 FOMC minutes last week. Given that yields are running into technical resistance the USD may find less support from this source over coming days.

A light data week will give little directional impetus to the USD, with highlights including trade data, consumer credit and small business confidence. Instead the USD will take its cue from various Fed speakers who will likely provide more elaboration on their views on an eventual exit from QE. The USD is likely to remain firm in the short term although we would be wary of extrapolating trends based on early year moves.

In contrast to the limited US data schedule there are plenty of data releases and events in Europe to digest this week including the European Central Bank Council meeting. The ECB is unlikely to ease policy at this meeting, with those in the Council against a cut unlikely to have shifted their stance although a rate cut, possibly in March remains on the cards. Data releases will continue to show weakness although importantly sentiment surveys will stabilise rather than drop further.

Sovereign debt issuance may take more importance for the EUR this week, with Austria, Belgium, Italy, Germany, Italy and Spain all scheduled to issue debt. Given the better risk environment a generally favourable reception to the debt issues will give the EUR some solace, likely preventing the currency from sliding further. Strong EUR/USD technical support is set to come just below 1.3000 at 1.2996.

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