ECONOMETER

The better than expected reading for January US jobs growth (175k versus 149k consensus) helped to buoy asset markets at the end of the week, with major US equity indices posting gains. The uptick in the US unemployment rate to 6.7% was also not perceived badly as it will put less pressure on the Fed to change its forward guidance. The jobs data helped to overcome concerns over ongoing tensions between the West and Russia over Ukraine.

Consequently the USD strengthened as US yields rose, with the 10 year Treasury yield almost touching 2.82%. The most sensitive currency pair to higher US yields is USD/JPY and further upside traction is likely. The main exception to the USD rebound was the EUR, which continued to benefit from the ECB’s lack of policy easing or dovish commentary at its policy meeting last week.

Chinese data released over the weekend will prove to be less constructive for asset markets at the turn of this week, however, with a surprise trade deficit registered over February and slowing inflation to a 13 month low. Exports dropped by whopping 18.1% in February while imports rose more strongly than expected at 10.1% yielding a trade deficit of USD 22.99 billion.