ECONOMETER

US jobs data released at the end of last week will diminish hopes of more aggressive policy rate cuts from the Fed FOMC at its policy meeting at the end of the month. Non-farm payrolls rose by 224,000 last month, beating market forecasts, a sharp improvement from the disappointing 72,000 increase in the previous month.

Despite the stronger than expected reading in June, the Fed is still likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points amid concerns about a loss of growth momentum, trade tensions against the background of low inflation.  Soft US June CPI releases on Thursday this week will likely confirm the subdued inflationary backdrop.

Markets will be able to garner more clues during Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday while Fed FOMC minutes from the last meeting will also provide greater detail on Fed thinking.  Both are likely to help confirm expectations of a 25 basis point cut in rates at the next FOMC meeting.

The USD has recovered some if recent losses, helped at the end of last week but the US jobs report.  Further gains are likely to be limited (with the USD index likely to struggle to break 98.0) though much will depend on Powell’s testimony this week.

Also in focus this week will be China’s June trade data.  This data will be scrutinised in particular, for the trade surplus with the US and whether there are any signs of this surplus beginning to narrow.  The data will also give some indications of the health of China’s economy, with another weak print for imports, likely to show further softening in China’s growth momentum. Similarly weaker exports will highlight the softening in demand from key trading partners such as Korea.

Further evidence on the outlook for China’s economy will be seen in the release of monetary aggregates including new loan growth and aggregate financing. Meanwhile, China’s currency continues to remain stable amid the trade truce with the US.