ECONOMETER

As we get to the end of the week trade headlines are still continuing to capture most attention. However, it has been increasingly difficult for anyone to guess what comes next in the long running trade war between the US and China.  Most investors and analysts think the trade war will persist for a long while but President Trump tweeted that it would “fairly short” and that talks with China were on track to resume next months.

Markets are not convinced and becoming increasingly desensitised to the news flow over trade, which seems to shift from good to bad news on a regular basis.  For example, the decision to delay the imposition of tariffs on around $156bn of Chinese exports until December failed to fuel a bounce in US equities. The decision has also left Chinese officials unperturbed.  China has vowed to retaliate, stating that the US had “deviated from the correct track of consultation and settlement of differences”.

The situation in Hong Kong is adding another dimension to the trade war.   President Trump has said that believed China’s President Xi could “work that out in a humane fashion” while in contrast many in the US Congress are pushing for a stronger stance. The eventual reaction will depend on whether demonstrations persist and how China moves going forward.

Hong Kong’s economy and markets are under pressure too, unsurprisingly. The economy is now facing the prospect of a technical recession, with growth in the third quarter likely to be negative following a -0.3% q/q drop in GDP in the second quarter.   Industry bodies have revealed that tourism has dropped sharply, with double digit declines in hotel occupancy and sharp reductions in purchases by mainland tourists. The number of tour groups from mainland China have declined by close to 30% in June compared to the average this year while hotel occupancy rates are expected to drop 40% y/y in July.