Three major central banks meet to decide on monetary policy this week, but after massive and unprecedented actions over past weeks, there is likely to be little new in terms of additional policy measures announced by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) in the days ahead. Key data this week include US Q1 GDP, the April US ISM manufacturing survey and China’s April purchasing manager’s index (PMI).
The Fed has thrown everything but the kitchen sink at Covid-19 to combat the severe economic and market impact emanating from the virus. This included aggressive rate cuts, unlimited asset purchases (Treasuries, MBS), purchases of commercial paper, loans to small businesses, easing rules for banks and provision of US dollar swap lines with other central banks to help ease global USD demand pressures. Aside from some fine tuning, there may not be much else the Fed will do at its meeting on Wednesday. Meanwhile the US ISM survey (Fri) is likely to post a sharp decline (consensus 37.0).
Markets have reacted well to the measures announced and implemented so far, but as noted there is a growing disconnect between the rally in equity markets over recent weeks and rapidly worsening economic data. US Q1 GDP data (Wed) this week will likely reveal some of the damage, with a 4% q/q annualised fall in GDP forecast by the consensus. Q2 GDP will be even weaker however, as most of the weakness in activity will have taken place in April and will have likely continued into May and June.
The ECB continues to face pressure to do more as Eurozone activity continues to plunge. So far the main thrust of the ECB’s measures are EUR 750bn of bond purchases and loosening of restrictions on such purchases. However, sovereign spreads, especially in the periphery (especially Italy) are under pressure and the ECB may need to act again soon though perhaps not as early as the meeting this Thursday. The ECB will also likely shift the onus of further easing to fiscal, especially the proposed “recovery fund”, which continues to fuel major divisions between European countries.
Last but not least the BoJ meeting on Monday will probably be the most active in terms of new measures, but on balance they will probably do little to move markets. At the last meeting the BoJ significantly increased the amount of ETFs they would purchase, which to some extent has helped the Nikkei 225 rally over recent weeks. At this meeting the BoJ is unlikely to alter its negative interest rate policy, but is likely to remove its JPY 80 trillion cap on JGB purchases and announce an increase in corporate bond purchases along with other measures to ease credit.
On the data front China’s official manufacturing PMI is likely to remain around or just above the expansionary threshold of 50 as much of China’s supply side of the economy opens up. However, the ability to retain expansion at a time when global demand and therefore China’s export markets are collapsing, will prove difficult. China’s authorities appear to be increasingly realising this and have stepped up support both on the fiscal (via special bond issuance) and monetary side (targeted cuts in various rates), but so far the scale of easing has been limited and Q1 growth was especially weak.