So much in the price

September 10, 2012 — Mitul Kotecha

The weaker than expected US August non farm payrolls data at the end of last week punished the USD and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will announce a fresh round of quantitative easing at this week’s FOMC policy meeting. The shift in expectations for QE has been rapid over recent weeks and the jobs data acted as the icing on the cake. In part USD weakness reflects both QE expectations and the positive reaction to the European Central Bank’s bond buying plan announced last week. In this respect a lot is already priced in to currency markets and EUR/USD will struggle to sustain a move above 1.28 in the short term.

From a risk / reward perspective there are potentially plenty of stumbling blocks this week aside from the FOMC meeting that could skew market direction towards risk rather than reward. These include the German constitutional court decision on the ESM permanent bailout fund and Dutch elections both of which take place on Wednesday. The German court decision is the last needed before the ESM comes into force. Legal experts expect the court to approve the ESM but with tough conditionality. Should the ESM not be approved it would leave any more bailout funds to come only from the cash left in the temporary and dwindling EFSF. Separately the Dutch elections look set to end in weeks if not months of coalition building. These events occur gainst the backdrop of talks between the Greek government and its creditors following failure to agree on spending cuts between Greece’s coalition partners.

Ahead of these events the European Commission will reveal details of plans towards a single banking supervision mechanism. The G20 meeting in Mexico and Ecofin meeting at the end of the week will also garner attention, with any discussion on a European banking union of interest. Meanwhile, following the ECB’s announcement last week the ball is in the court of Spain and Italy to formally request An EU bailout and in turn accept various conditions and targets necessary to receive a bailout. Only then will the ECB commence its ‘unlimited’ bond buying. No date or deadline has been set for such requests for a bailout but given the sharp drop in peripheral Eurozone bond yields over recent weeks in anticipation of ECB bond purchases there is certainly scope for disappointment, with market patience likely to run thin.

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Euro relief, but will it last?

September 8, 2012 — Mitul Kotecha

The European Central Bank (ECB) decision to embark on outright monetary transactions helped to provide a major lift to markets but did not spur the EUR onto major greater gains. The program of conditional albeit unlimited bond purchases was much anticipated and well received (except by the German Bundesbank) despite many of the details being leaked in advance. The lack of EUR reaction in part reflected this.

In fact, the EUR appeared to rally more in the wake of aggressive buying of EUR/CHF, which finally moved away from its 1.2000 floor, possibly with some official help. Markets will now await the decisions of Spain and Italy which would have to formally request aid for the bond buying plan to be put into action and perhaps there will be some hesitation on the part of the EUR to push higher.

Although there could be some nervousness ahead of the decision by the German constitutional court on the ESM permanent bailout fund and Dutch elections on 12 September the ECB’s move has provided a floor under risks assets over the short term. Given the EUR’s strong relationship with peripheral Eurozone bond yields, the implication is that the drop in the yields will provide some support for the EUR.

Before everyone becomes too excited it should be noted that there is still a long way to go before the Eurozone crisis will be resolved given the many structural and growth issues that need to be overcome. Nonetheless, the downside risks for the EUR are clearly diminishing, leaving the currency in better shape than it has been for a long while.

The fact that EUR/USD is back above its 100-day moving average is a positive signal. Moreover, despite some short covering the market is still very short EUR. However, we would be cautious about becoming overly bullish. Further gains in the EUR will be difficult to achieve given the constant drag on the currency due to relatively weaker growth and the simple fact that many of the underlying issues in the Eurozone remain unresolved.

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Euro capped ahead of ECB meeting

September 6, 2012 — Mitul Kotecha

Having failed to get above the 1.2650 barrier EUR/USD looks restrained going into today’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. Reports overnight of a great ‘plan’ to buy bonds up to 3 years in unlimited size in sterilised fashion, helped provide some support to the currency but further gains will be limited. The ECB has already let the cat out of the bag and FX markets are quite correct to go into the ECB meeting with a dose of caution.

How will the EUR react? Given that much of what the ECB will do today has already been leaked the scope for positive surprises is limited, suggesting any upside for EUR will be capped although comments on yield targets (if any), conditionality, and the seniority issue will be important.

Profit taking, lowered expectations over recent days and uncertainty ahead of the US jobs report tomorrow will limit the damage to the currency, however. A drop to support around 1.2431 is the most that can be expected in the short term.

Unlike a likely rate cut from the ECB the Bank of England (BoE) is set to stay pat having embarked on further asset purchases in July. Weaker growth and upside inflation risk do not make for an enviable concoction. Although I anticipate further asset purchases later in the year, further action today is unlikely. This will mean that EUR/GBP in particular will lack independent direction and continue to track moves in EUR/USD (very strong sensitivity over the last 3-months). Given the potential for some further short term slippage in EUR/USD, EUR/GBP will likely follow suit.

As for GBP/USD it will struggle to sustain a break above this week’s high of 1.5935 unless US payrolls data tomorrow disappoints. Long speculative positioning means that GBP is vulnerable to profit taking especially having strengthened by over 3% since the beginning of June. The 28 August low around 1.5754 will provide near term support.

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Risk assets to slip ahead of ECB and US payrolls

September 3, 2012 — Mitul Kotecha

Although Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke did not categorically state that a third round of quantitative easing or QE3 is on the cards his stoic defence of past QE while playing down of the risks emanating from such actions, highlight that the prospects are more likely than not for more Fed balance sheet expansion.

Markets clearly liked what they heard, with risk assets finishing off the week on a positive note. Notably commodities continue to outperform and the prospects of more currency debasing by the Fed and European Central Bank suggest that gold in particular, will continue to look attractive. However, the weaker than expected Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) in August, with the index dropping below the 50 boom/bust level, will put a dampener on markets.

The main impediment to QE3 would be a major improvement in job market conditions and in this respect markets will have the August jobs report to digest at the end of this week. Preliminary estimates of an 125k increase in payrolls and an unemployment rate stuck at 8.3% suggests that it should be no hindrance to more QE.

The other key event of the week is the European Central Bank meeting although markets will eye events in Greece ahead of this, with the Troika set to revisit the country mid week. The ECB continues to play its game of brinkmanship with governments, and while they Bank will likely commit to a bond buying programme it is unlikely to announce the onset of a new round of bond purchases until governments in particular Spain formally request aid from the EFSF / ESM bailout funds. Although there is some scope for disappointment expectations of major ECB action have already been pared back.

Other central banks in the frame include the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Canada but unlike the ECB policy easing is unlikely from either of these central banks. Overall, risk assets to trade with a heavy tone and the USD will recoup some of its losses over coming days, especially against the EUR.

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