Busy Week Ahead For Central Banks

US equities came under more pressure at the end of last week, with the S&P 500 falling to its lowest in four weeks, down around 2% month to data.  The drop will test the buy on dips mentality as the S&P is once again resting just above its pivotal 55-day moving average, a level that has seen strong buying interest in the past. 

Economic data gave little help to market sentiment, with the University of Michigan confidence index improving a little to 71.0 in early September but falling slightly below consensus expectations at 72.0.  Separately, the inflation expectations measures were broadly unchanged, with the most relevant series for Fed officials (the 5-10y) remaining steady at 2.9%, which is still consistent with the Fed’s 2% goal.

This week is all about central bank meetings, with an array of policy meetings including in Indonesia (Tue), Sweden (Tue), Hungary (Tue), China (Wed), Japan (Wed), US (Wed), Brazil (Thu), Philippines (Thu), UK (Thu), Norway (Thu), Switzerland (Thu), South Africa (Thu), and Taiwan (Fri), all on tap. 

Most focus will obviously be on the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, during which officials will likely signal that they are almost ready to taper. A formal announcement is likely in December or possibly November.  Most other central banks are likely to stay on hold except a likely 25bp hike in Norway, 25bp in Hungary, and 100bp in Brazil.

Politics will also be in focus, with Canada’s Federal election and the results of Russia’s parliamentary elections today.  Polls suggest the incumbent Liberals ahead though the most likely outcome is a minority government in Canada while in Russia the ruling pro Kremlin United Russia party is likely to renew its supermajority. 

Other issues in focus this week are frictions over the US debt ceiling, with the House voting soon on raising the ceiling.  US Treasury Secretary Yellen renewed her calls for Congress to raise of suspend the debt ceiling stating in a Wall Street Journal op-ed that failing to do so “would produce widespread economic catastrophe”. 

In China, Evergrande’s travails will be in the spotlight on Thursday when interest payments on two of its notes come due amid growing default risks.  Indeed, China related stocks slid on Monday morning as Evergrande concerns spread through the market.  Property developer stocks are under most pressure and whether there is wider contagion will depend on events on Thursday.

The US dollar has continued to strengthen, edging towards its 20 Aug high around 92.729 (DXY) and looks likely to remain firm heading into the Fed FOMC meeting especially as it will hard for Fed Chair Powell to sound too dovish and given risks of a hawkish shift in the dot plot.  Positioning data is showing increasingly positive sentiment towards the dollar, with speculative positioning (CFTC IMM net non-commercial futures) data showing the highest net long DXY position since May 2020. 

Conversely, speculative positioning in Australian dollar has hit a record low likely undermined by weaker iron ore prices.  Similarly, positioning in Canadian dollar is at its lowest since Dec 2020 while Swiss franc positioning is at its lowest since Dec 2019. Asian currencies have been hit, with the ADXY sliding over recent days.  The Chinese currency, CNY has been undermined by weaker data and concerns over Evergrande while high virus cases in some countries are hurting the likes of Thai baht. 

Plethora Of Central Banks

This week is a busy one for central bank meetings and data releases.  There are key policy meetings in the US (Wed), followed by Indonesia, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey, Brazil (all on Thu) and Japan (Fri).  None are expected to change policy settings except the BCB in Brazil, with the consensus expecting a 75bp hike there.

There will however, be lot of attention on the language of the statements for any hawkish tinges.  The US Federal Reserve FOMC for instance is likely to continue to highlight that inflation pressures are transitory but could state they have started to discuss some form of progress-dependent tapering plan even as the Fed remains far from actual tapering. 

While markets may be buying the “transitory” inflation story, consumer expectations remain elevated.  The New York Fed survey showed that consumer inflation expectations 3 years out rose to an 8 year high of 3.6% in May while 1-year expectations rose to a record 4%.  However, markets may find some solace from the drop in lumber prices, which have dropped by around 40% since early May though the CRB commodities index remains near multi-year highs.   

Norway’s Norges Bank may start preparing markets for a third quarter rate hike.  In contrast, in Turkey, attention will be on any clues to when the central bank will ease policy amid calls for a cut from President Erdogan. The Bank of Japan is likely to extend COVID aid for businesses while Bank Indonesia is likely to focus on transmission of past easing rather than cut again. 

Key data this week includes US May retail sales (today) for which a monthly decline in headline sales is likely though spending is still likely to have grown strongly over the quarter.  China’s May data dump (Wed) will also garner attention, with healthy gains in both retail sales and industrial production likely, even taking account of base effects. 

Australia’s May jobs report (Thu) is forecast to show an increase though there are downside risks emanating from JobkKeeper’s expiry in May.  Reserve Bank of Australia June minutes (today) and speech by governor Lowe (Thu) will also be scrutinized for thinking on whether RBA will extend the YCC bond to the Nov 24s and quantitative easing commitment. 

There are also several other central bank speeches of importance this week including two speeches by Bank of England governor Bailey, and several European Central Bank speakers. 

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