There are several first tier Eurozone data releases on tap this week including March flash purchasing managers indices (PMIs), preliminary HICP inflation and the March IFO business confidence survey.
We look for a slight increase in the “flash” composite PMI, with the data restrained by concerns about China and the Ukraine. Inflation in March could move lower, while the German IFO survey is expected to flat. The data will not be particularly spectacular but ought not to detract from the fact that growth momentum in the Eurozone is picking up.
Lower inflation may provide more support to lower policy rates from the European Central Bank but some of the pressure on the ECB to ease policy rates may have eased given the decline in the EUR last week.
After last week’s sharp drop EUR/USD is likely to consolidate around 1.3800 over coming days.