Cautious start to the year

January 2, 2014 — Mitul Kotecha

Happy New Year!

2013 ended with a solid performance by US equities and further pressure on US Treasuries helped by a bigger than expected increase in US December consumer confidence. The S&P 500 ended close to 30% higher over the year while 10 year Treasury yields rose above 3%, registering an overall rise of around 108 basis points over 2013. In contrast commodity prices dropped sharply, with the CRB index recording a sharp drop and ending 5% lower over the year. Meanwhile the USD index ended the year close to where it began although this performance belies some significant volatility over the year, with losses against the EUR and gains against the JPY.

The first trading day of 2014 begins on a more cautious note as a disappointing reading for the December Chinese purchasing managers’ index (51.0 versus 51.2 consensus forecast) will cast a shadow over markets today. Indeed, the data alongside weaker commodity prices will weigh on AUD. Japanese markets will be closed over the rest of the week, while many market participants will not return until next week, suggesting limited activity. Nonetheless, as far as the JPY is concerned the currency is set to remain on the back foot versus USD given the ongoing widening in real yield differentials between the US and Japan.

Meanwhile EUR/USD looks like it will struggle to make much headway over the short term, with only the final reading of the December Eurozone PMI due for release today. The data will likely confirm a relatively healthy looking reading of 52.7, its highest reading since May 2011 but will unlikely provoke much of a market reaction. Instead markets will look ahead to the European Central Bank meeting next week. Recent ECB comments suggest little chance of another rate cut anytime soon despite a very subdued inflationary backdrop. Against this background any EUR slippage in the short term is likely to be limited although further out the relatively inferior Eurozone growth outlook compared to the US, highlights plenty of scope for downside EUR pressure.

Asian currencies will also look somewhat subdued in the wake of China’s softer PMI reading. Additionally a bigger than expected decline in Singapore Q4 GDP release (-2.7% QoQ annualised) will also not bode well although the drop in GDP will be seen as temporary, with official estimates still pointing to growth around 2-4% for 2014. In contrast robust export data from South Korea will be positive for the KRW in line with our view that the currency will be one of 2014’s outperformers along with the TWD and CNH. Elsewhere the THB continues to be hamstrung by political concerns, which are showing little sign of easing ahead of planned elections February 2.

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Firm US data not helping the dollar

December 9, 2013 — Mitul Kotecha

The US November employment report released at the end of last week helped to reinforce expectations that the Fed will begin tapering soon, possibly as early as the FOMC meeting in mid December. Non-farm payrolls rose by 203k while the unemployment rate dropped to 7%. Job gains have averaged around 180k per month over the last 6 months. The jobs data followed on from several other firm US data releases over the week highlighting strengthening signs of recovery.

Equities reacted well, rising as fears over tapering were outweighed by concrete signs of recovery. Meanwhile bond yields rose over the week although they slipped on Friday. Attention will turn to next week’s Fed FOMC meeting while this week’s data flow will be more limited. The main event will be the November US retail sales report where a moderate gain in sales is expected in terms sales outside of autos, providing the final clues to the Fed’s decision next week.

Elsewhere markets are still reeling from the ECB’s less dovish than expected statement last week as reflected in the subsequent strength of the EUR. Data this week in the Eurozone will be encouraging, with Eurozone industrial production set to rebound. This will be echoed in the UK, with hard data reflecting the strength in manufacturing surveys.

In Japan this morning’s data slate was disappointing, with Q3 revised lower and the current account registering a deficit for the second straight month in October although the JPY impact will be limited. Finally, the RNBZ is will hold a policy rate meeting this week although no change is expected from the central bank as recent mortgage restrictions will have reduced the need to tighten policy. Nonetheless, as reflected by the latest NZ housing data loan to value mortgage restrictions have yet to have a significant impact.

The USD failed to benefit from the solid data in the US last week undermined by some slippage in US yields, with the reaction indicative of a market that is becoming increasingly accustomed to the idea of an imminent Fed tapering. The USD index appears to be struggling into year end, with the EUR taking advantage of the USD’s inability to push higher especially given that the ECB did not appear to be in any hurry to add more monetary accommodation last week.

Conversely USD/JPY looks set to continue to edge higher as sentiment for JPY continues to deteriorate; latest IMM positioning data shows that net JPY positions have hit their lowest since July 2007. The next key technical resistance level is around 103.74. Firm trade data in China over the weekend helped to bolster AUD and NZD although the latter is benefitting the most, boosted overnight by strong house price data in November. Consequently AUD/NZD continues top plumb new depths.

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Rising risk aversion

December 5, 2013 — Mitul Kotecha

The US ADP November jobs report and October new home sales both beat expectations yesterday piling on the pressure on US Treasuries and adding further weight to support those looking for the Fed to taper at the December 17-18 FOMC meeting. Consequently non farm payrolls expectation will likely be revised higher from the current consensus of around 180k. In contrast the ISM non manufacturing index came in below consensus, with the jobs component slipping. US equities ended marginally lower while the USD held its ground. However, risk measures such as the VIX “fear gauge” moved higher. Rising risk aversion may reflect expectations of imminent tapering and some angst ahead of US budget talks.

US November payrolls data to be released tomorrow will be crucial to provide more decisive clues to the timing of Fed tapering. Attention ahead of the jobs report will turn to the European Central Bank policy decision where no action is expected although some downward revisions to staff forecasts are likely. We continue to expect a more aggressive ECB stance into 2014. The Bank of England and Norges Bank will also decide on policy rates but no change is expected in both cases. In the US an upward revision to Q3 US GDP is expected to around 3.1% QoQ annualised while jobless claims will also be in focus. Market nervousness is likely to continue today although activity is likely to be limited ahead of the US payrolls data tomorrow.

The USD should be supported due to higher US Treasury yields although USD/JPY has lost some ground in the wake of higher risk aversion. The large short JPY market position may also be limiting the JPY’s downside for now. EUR/USD is trading shy of its recent highs above 1.36 and could be vulnerable to a dovish ECB statement today as well as to growth forecast downgrades by the ECB. AUD continues to remain under pressure having traded just below 0.90 overnight in the wake of disappointing GDP data yesterday and is likely to remain vulnerable to further slippage. CAD was further undermined by a relatively dovish Bank of Canada statement following the decision overnight to leave policy rates unchanged.

Given that US Treasury yields have risen by around 33bps since the end of October it is worth looking at which currencies are most sensitive to rising yields. In Asia the most correlated currencies with 10 year US Treasury yields over the last 3 months and therefore most vulnerable currencies are the SGD, THB, and MYR. The least sensitive have been CNY, IDR and KRW. Playing long KRW / short SGD appears to be a good way of playing an environment of rising US yields, especially given that yields are set to continue to rise over the coming months.

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USD firms, JPY bears in the ascendency, RBA weighs on AUD

December 3, 2013 — Mitul Kotecha

Despite some encouraging economic news from manufacturing surveys globally equity markets and risk assets in general failed to benefit overnight, with stocks showing a little fatigue following recent gains. The US ISM manufacturing confidence survey beat expectations rising to its highest level since April 2011 while its components looked upbeat, especially the employment component.

This was echoed in the UK and even in the Eurozone the final manufacturing purchasing managers index was slightly higher than forecast. Consequently core bond yields and the USD continued to push higher while gold came under further pressure. The US data also has put the spectre of a December tapering on the table although the November employment report will be scrutinised for further clues.

While JPY bears have been encouraged by the rise in Japanese inflation revealed last week (which was not only energy price led) there’s a long way to go before claiming success in hitting the BoJ’s 2% inflation target. The good news is that the higher real yield differential between the US and Japan is consistent with USD/JPY upside.

The bad news is that more BoJ policy easing is likely to sustain the move and we suspect the central bank will oblige early next year. Indeed, BoJ Governor Kuroda alluded to this yesterday, and his comments were taken at face value by markets, pushing the JPY even lower, with USD/JPY breaching 103 overnight. We keep open our trade idea to buy USD/JPY initiated on 28 October at 97.64 targeting 103.74.

AUD/USD has lost close to 6% since its high around 0.9759 on 23rd October but has found some respite recently from short covering over recent days. The Reserve Bank of Australia however, continues to do its best to weaken the currency. Unsurprisingly left policy rates unchanged today but the accompanying statement noted that the currency remained “uncomfortably high”.

The AUD has been particularly sensitive to a renewed rise in US Treasury yields, being one of the most correlated currencies over recent months and in this respect remains vulnerable to any increase in US yield. Given that we expect US yields to continue to push higher into next year this suggest only a limited AUD recovery over the coming months. In the near term AUD/USD has found some solid technical support around 0.9038.

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USD, AUD and GBP view

November 19, 2013 — Mitul Kotecha

The USD is struggling to make much headway, continuing to be capped in the wake of lower US Treasury yields following Fed Chairman nominee Yellen’s comments last week. There appears to be little clarity as markets continue to second guess the timing of Fed tapering while Fed officials appear to be giving conflicting signals. However, some clarification will be sought from Fed Chairman Bernanke’s comments later tonight. Meanwhile, the large increase in USD speculative positioning as revealed in the CFTC IMM data give further reason to be cautious on further USD appreciation in the short term. Alongside likely weaker data US releases including October retail sales over coming days, it suggests limited upside USD potential.

The AUD may take advantage of a pause in the USD’s appreciation trend, helped by the release of the November 5 RBA meeting minutes. The minutes confirmed that the central bank is in no hurry to ease policy rates further. Although they did note that the AUD remains uncomfortably high there was nothing new in such comments. It increasingly looks as though the RBA has reached the bottom of its easing cycle, something that will likely help to provide the AUD with some support over the coming months. In the near term AUD/USD will attempt to take a crack at resistance around 0.9421 although a speech by governor Stevens on Thursday will give further direction, and could hold risks to AUD especially if he attempts to talk the currency lower.

GBP has been relatively resilient in the wake of some positive UK economic data releases. Attention will turn to tomorrow’s Bank of England MPC minutes which will be scrutinized for clues to a possible change in the 7% unemployment rate threshold. Already it appears that the BoE is closer to hiking policy rates than previously thought as indicated in last week’s Quarterly Inflation Report. GBP/USD may benefit from some general USD consolidation although its gains will be restricted ahead of the MPC minutes. Near term support GBP/USD is seen around 1.6080, with risks of profit taking on recent GBP gains likely to restrict upside potential in the currency.

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