JPY pullback risks, GBP to slip versus USD

March 27, 2012 — Mitul Kotecha

A combination of market friendly comments by Fed Chairman Bernanke, a better than expected outcome for the German IFO business confidence survey in March and hopes of a bolstering of the Eurozone bailout fund, have managed to lift risk assets while pressuring the USD. Markets appear to have shaken off, at least for now, growth worries emanating from weaker manufacturing confidence surveys in China and Europe last week.

Nonetheless, while Bernanke maintained that accommodative monetary policy is still required especially given concerns about the jobs market, he did not hint at more quantitative easing, suggesting that market optimism may be tempered in the days ahead. Data and events today include US and French consumer confidence as well as bill auctions in Spain and Italy. US consumer confidence is likely to slip slightly while the bill auctions are likely to be well received.

While I remain bearish on the JPY in the medium term (beyond 1 month), over the near term I believe there is scope for a pull back. The move in USD/JPY has gone beyond what would be expected by the shift in relative yields. This is corroborated by my short term quantitative model which shows that USD/JPY should be trading around 80.

The speculative market is positioned for JPY weakness but also points to some scope for short covering; both CFTC IMM data and Japanese TFX data (a gauge of local margin trading positioning) reveal significant short JPY positions. If as I expect, USD/JPY does pull back it will offer better levels for investors to initiate medium term JPY bearish trades.

Ultimately the JPY will regain its attraction as a funding currency for carry trades and the bigger the shift in relative yield with the US, the more the potential for capital outflows from Japan into higher yielding assets.

GBP has failed to sustain gains above 1.59 against the USD over recent weeks let alone manage to test the psychologically important 1.60 level. The current bounce above 1.59 is unlikely to last. It will require a renewed downtrend in the USD in general provoked by a sharp improvement in risk appetite and/or a drop in US bond yields for GBP to move much higher. Neither seems likely.

Indeed, GBP will be vulnerable to a general firmer USD over the remainder of the year. While I would not suggest playing a bullish call on GBP versus the USD I think there is much more juice in holding GBP versus EUR, with downside risks to this currency pair likely to open up. Indeed, my quantitative models reveal that GBP is mispriced against both EUR and AUD.

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USD pressured by drop in yield

March 26, 2012 — Mitul Kotecha

Risk sentiment starts the week in positive mode. Weekend reports that Germany will not stand in the way of allowing the (European Financial Stability Facility) EFSF and its successor the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) bailout funds to be combined to boost the ‘firewall’ against contagion in the Eurozone has helped to boost sentiment.

Market direction may be obscured by month end and quarter end window dressing this week and despite the likely positive start to the week there are still plenty of factors to dent risk appetite over coming days, not least of which is the gyrations in oil prices.

The USD has slipped over recent days in line with a pull back in US Treasury bond yields. Notably there has also been a pull back in speculative USD sentiment as recorded in the CFTC IMM data. The ‘risk on’ tone to market that appears to be developing today will likely result in renewed downside risks to the currency.

US economic data continues to outshine economic releases elsewhere although US housing data last week was notably mixed. It will be the turn of March consumer confidence and February durable goods orders to capture the market’s attention over coming days.

A slight decline in the former and a healthy increase in the latter are expected. However, it seems unlikely that either release will be particularly supportive for yields and in turn the USD, so it will require a further increase in risk aversion to push the USD higher over coming days.

EUR/USD appears to be settling into the middle of a 1.30-1.35 range. Direction has increasingly been led by economic factors rather than debt issues recently but the news on the former has not been particularly good.

The March German IFO today and EU Finance Ministers meeting will be the key events of the week while there will also be interest on Spain’s budget as well as Spanish and Italian debt auctions. The IFO will likely prove to be more positive for the EUR than the manufacturing surveys last week, with an uptrend in the data continuing.

Moreover, hopes that Finance Ministers will bolster the ‘firewall’ to prevent other peripheral countries from repeating Greece’s debacle, will also likely keep the EUR supported. Overall, this implies EUR/USD will likely continue to creep higher over the week, with a test of technical resistance around 1.3356 eyed.

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JPY retracement, CHF pressure

March 20, 2012 — Mitul Kotecha

Risk assets rallied overnight, the USD weakened and US Treasury yields rose. There was little new in terms of economic news, with only NAHB March homebuilders confidence of note, which came in slightly weaker than expected. The bigger driver for markets was the news that Apple Inc. will pay around USD 45 billion in dividends and share buybacks over the next 3-years.

Today sees a crop of second tier releases including housing starts and building permits in the US and inflation data in the UK while there will also be attention on a speech by Fed Chairman Bernanke. Risk assets will remain supported but I continue to see consolidation for markets in the near term.

USD/JPY has retraced lower as warned last week. My quantitative models suggest scope for even more of a correction lower, with a drop below 83.00 on the cards in the short term. While the upward move in the currency pair was built on a widening in the US yield advantage over Japan, the move looks overdone. Nonetheless, any pullback will offer better levels to initiate long USD/JPY medium term positions.

Clearly the market believes that the JPY will weaken further given the build up in JPY short positions over recent weeks, with shorts at their highest since April 2011. February trade data to be released on Thursday will provide further fuel for JPY bears given the persistence of a trade deficit and weakness in exports.

Following the bounce in EUR/CHF last week the currency pair has dropped back into its recent tight range around the 1.2050-1.2070 area. Strong warnings by the Swiss National Bank at its policy meeting did not lead to any follow through on the CHF. I expect a gradual drift higher in EUR/CHF over coming weeks in line with the incremental change in sentiment for the Eurozone as Greece slips from the radar.

Official pressure for CHF weakness will remain intense given the deterioration in economic data as likely to be revealed in today’s release of Q4 industrial production. Nonetheless, the SNB will be wary of confronting the market in terms of FX intervention to weaken the CHF despite its verbal warnings. Meanwhile USD/CHF remains highly sensitive to gyrations in the USD index given its strong correlation, suggesting some consolidation in the short term as the USD pulls back.

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GBP on a rollercoaster, NOK to bounce back

March 16, 2012 — Mitul Kotecha

GBP has had a rollercoaster ride both against the USD and the EUR. On balance, it has fared better than the EUR vs. USD. News that Fitch ratings put the UK’s AAA ratings on negative watch had little impact although it may yet restrain GBP. If anything the news will likely help UK Chancellor Osborne formulate a relatively austere budget next Wednesday. Unlike the beleaguered JPY, GBP has not suffered from a widening in the yield differential with the US.

In fact 2-year UK Gilt yields have echoed the rise in US 2-year bond yields over recent days. This suggests that GBP ought to face less downward pressure compared to other currencies. Although I continue to see further GBP strength against the EUR over the medium term, the near prospects look volatile. Instead, I suggest playing a GBP positive view via the AUD.

It is worth commenting, albeit belatedly, on the outlook for the NOK following the surprise decision by Norway’s central bank, Norges Bank, which cut its policy rate by 25bps on Wednesday. Does it significantly change the outlook for the NOK? I believe it doesn’t and the recent drop in the NOK will provide a good opportunity to reinstate long positions.

Although the central bank may ease policy once again over coming months this will not undermine the NOK given that the influence of interest rate differentials on the currency is limited. Moreover, lower interest rates threaten to push already high property prices even higher suggesting that the Norges Bank may have limited room to cut rates further. Elevated oil prices continue to provide solid support for the currency and unless oil prices correct lower, the NOK will remain well supported versus EUR, with a drop to around 7.45 on the cards.

Posted in FX, Norway, UK. Tags: , , , , , . 1 Comment »

Euro and Swiss franc under pressure

March 15, 2012 — Mitul Kotecha

Positive momentum in risk assets slowed, with higher core bond yields in the US and Europe weighing on sentiment. The USD in particular has been buoyed by higher US bond yields, with the move in line with my long held medium term view of a firmer yield led gain in the USD. Commodity prices in contrast have come under growing pressure, with gold and copper prices sliding in particular. Risk measures continue to improve including my risk barometer, suggesting that the overall tone to risk assets will remain positive.

The main focus today will be on a plethora of US data releases including industrial production, Philly Fed and Empire manufacturing confidence while in Europe attention will be on Spanish and French bond auctions. US data will likely remain upbeat, while the auctions should be well received.

EUR has pulled back sharply over recent not just against the USD but also on the crosses, with EUR/GBP finally playing some catch up yesterday. It’s interesting that the drop in the EUR has occurred despite generally improving conditions for peripheral Eurozone as reflected in narrowing yield spreads between peripheral countries and Germany.

The bottom line is that the EUR is suffering from a widening in the US / Europe (Germany) bond yield differential as it is becoming increasingly clear that the US economy will strongly outperform the Eurozone economy this year. As noted at the beginning of the week EUR/USD was set to drop to below support around 1.3055. Having hit this level, strong support around the 1.2974 level moves into sight.

Ahead of today’s quarterly Swiss National Bank meeting at which no change in policy is widely expected, EUR/CHF has taken a sharp lurch higher, finally moving away from around the 1.2050 level it has been trading at over recent weeks. While I am bearish on the CHF over the medium term further upside in EUR/CHF will be limited over the short term given that the move in the currency is at odds with interest rate differentials which have actually narrowed between the Eurozone and Switzerland. Technical resistance around 1.2298 will cap gains over coming sessions.

As for USD/CHF the picture remains a bullish one, with general USD strength driven by higher yields, pushing the currency pair higher. I look for a test of resistance around 0.9393 over coming sessions.

Posted in eurozone, Switzerland, US. Tags: , , , , , , . 2 Comments »
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