We are currently moving into an environment where economic data is becoming less and less influential in moving markets and this could continue for some weeks. The bottom line is that so much recovery news is in the price that the continuing run of better than forecast data are having only a limited impact. Over recent days this run has included firmer than forecast readings on US manufacturing sentiment, consumer sentiment, housing activity and durable goods orders. The market has become saturated with good news and is showing signs of fatigue.
Just take a look at the reaction to the latest numbers. Equity markets barely flinched in reaction to positive data including a surge in new home sales and a jump in durable goods orders. In Europe, the German IFO recorded its biggest increase since 1996. Perhaps the subdued market reaction was due to the details of some of the reports which could have been considered as not as upbeat as the headlines suggested. However, this explain is tenuous at best.
News that China’s state council is studying restrictions on overcapacity in industries including steel and cement will not have helped market sentiment as concerns about Chinese growth are likely to resurface. Nonetheless, the most likely explanation for the lack of momentum in markets is fatigue. There have been plenty of positive data surprises over recent weeks and markets have become increasingly desensitised to such news.
Another explanation of the failure of positive data to boost sentiment is that risk appetite is almost back to pre-crisis levels according to many indicators I follow. Indeed, further impetus for risk currencies will be more limited in the months ahead as the room for a further decline in risk aversion is becoming more limited.
This combined with growing fatigue will have interesting consequences. Firstly it suggests a degree of dollar and yen resilience over coming weeks and growing pressure on risk trades, especially commodity currencies which will suffer disproportionately to fears about Chinese growth and lower commodities demand.
Nonetheless, consolidation in the weeks ahead rather than any sharp moves is the most likely path. Although the overall trend of improving risk appetite will continue it is already becoming evident that it will take a lot more to drive risk appetite higher than a steady stream of data showing that the global economy is turning around. In any case, currencies have become less sensitive to the gyrations in risk suggesting that other influences will be sought in the months ahead. In the meantime range trading will continue.
The reduced swings in currencies have taken FX largely off the radar as far as policy makers are concerned and it is difficult to see the topic being a major issue at upcoming policy meetings. Lower currency volatility is clearly a boon for policy makers and reflects some “normalisaiton” in currency markets. It perhaps also reflects the fact that FX valuations are less of out synch than they were a few months back, with the USD far less overvalued against many currencies.
ECONOMETER 