PIIGS fears fuelling risk aversion

January 29, 2010 — Mitul Kotecha

Risk aversion has come back with a vengeance over the last 10 days driven by a host of concerns that continue to damage market sentiment. As has been evident over the past year the USD and JPY remain the best currency plays against the background of rising risk aversion and both currencies look well supported.

Market concerns are not going away quickly but some of the fears plaguing markets have at least receded especially on the US political front, with Obama’s State of the Union address, Geithner’s testimony on AIG and Bernanke’s reappointment all passing without too much incident, at least from a market perspective. I still believe that market fears are overblown but it is clearly evident that the market is not in the mood to concur. More pain is likely in the weeks ahead.

Euro-sovereign spreads continue to suffer from the ongoing Greek saga whilst the other major fear remains further monetary tightening in China. Rumours that China is about to imminently revalue the CNY are also running rife. The bigger than expected hike in the reserve ratio in India reflects the fact that Asia is on a faster track to tighten policy than Western economies.

As regular readers probably noticed, my articles on econometer.org have been sporadic recently. This is due to the fact that I have been on the road for the last two weeks giving client seminars across several countries in Asia. Without giving too much away it is evident that pessimism is pervasive and most investors I polled are looking for a “W” or “double dip” profile for economic growth in the G7 economies over coming months. Hardly anyone looked for a “V”.

The other casualty emanating from Greece’s woes, as well as worries that other European PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain) face ratings downgrades, is the EUR. EUR/USD slipped below the psychologically important level of 1.40 this week and is showing no sign of turning around. Warnings by S&P ratings that Portugal faces challenges on the fiscal front show that these sovereign concerns will be with us for a long while yet.

After letting investors believe that the European Commission would offer no support for Greece, there appears to be a growing realization that Greece is not simply a local problem but a Euro wide problem, as noted by European Commission President Barroso. Whilst this may be good for Greek debt the path to recovery is still likely to be a massively painful one, and the EUR may gain little support from this news.

The UK has not escaped the clutches of ratings agencies and warnings by S&P that UK banks are no longer among the “most stable and low-risk” in the world highlights the headwinds faced by GBP at present. The weaker than expected out-turn for Q4 GDP (0.1%) highlights the fact that UK economic recovery is fragile, which in turn plays negatively for the banking sector. This news has put a break on GBP but there appears to be plenty of demand for GBP above 1.600 vs USD.

Posted in Asia, Bond markets, central banks, China, Currencies, Economics, Economy, emerging markets, Europe, Financial crisis, Fiscal/Budget, FX, Greece, India, Interest rates, Monetary Policy, US. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Not quite a Greek tragedy, but close

January 15, 2010 — Mitul Kotecha

Not quite a Greek tragedy but getting there. Greece’s announcement of a three-year plan to reduce its burgeoning fiscal deficit has not convinced markets. Greece’s 5-year CDS widened out to around 333bps whilst 10-year sovereign spreads widened further. There has been some contagion in other European countries notably Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Poland etc.

The plan which aims to cut the budget deficit from 12.7% to 2.8% of GDP by the end of 2012 appears to be very optimistic if not unrealistic. One of the main problems is not related to the magnitude of deficit reduction but to the starting point of 12.7% of GDP which is more realistically around 14-15% of GDP.

The deficit is planned to be cut by 4% this year alone which seems tough given the likelihood that the economy will contract this year and thereby increase the cyclical portion of the deficit. However, the major concern is the ability of the Greek authorities to cut nominal wages and pensions and in areas where inefficiency and corruption are widespread, such hospital and defense spending.

Greece needs to convince the European Commission and if the negative reaction by markets is anything to go by it may need further revisions including more drastic spending cuts as well as concrete plans for structural reforms. Greece will also find it difficult to ignore the skeptical market reaction given that the country aims to raise around EUR 54 billion to fund its public debt.

Greek concerns and similar countries elsewhere in Europe will likely act as a major weight on the EUR in the days ahead. Interestingly GBP seems to be a beneficiary. The situation does not appear to have a happy ending in sight and more pain looks likely. Rumours/talk of a Eurozone break-up are likely to intensify, however unrealistic such an event may be. ECB President Trichet dampened speculation in his speech following the ECB meeting that Greece could exit the euro but also confirmed that there would be no special treatment for Greece.

Posted in Bond markets, central banks, Currencies, Economics, Europe, Financial crisis, Fiscal/Budget, FX, Greece. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , . 2 Comments »

AUD and NZD outperformance

December 10, 2009 — Mitul Kotecha

Just as the euro looked as though it was showing some signs of rebounding following the battering it received in the wake of the downgrade of Greece’s credit ratings, S&P placed Spain on credit watch negative from neutral, which helped drag EUR/USD all the way down again. Expect more to come as sovereign risk concerns / fiscal deficit remain in focus. EUR/USD was helped by the usual sovereign demand, preventing a test of technical support around 1.4625 but another push lower is likely over the short term.

Despite a tough budget from Ireland yesterday, it alongside the likes of Latvia, Ireland, Hungary and Portugal will remain on the ratings agencies’ hit lists. Eurozone periphery bond spreads have widened sharply against bunds but even larger countries in Europe such as Italy have seen an increase in funding costs. Added to these concerns are the lingering uncertainties about Dubai as reflected in the continued rise in CDS.

In contrast, growth worries are receding quickly in Australia where another robust jobs report was released. Employment rose 31.2k in November, with an upward revision to the previous month, to 27.2k from 24.5k initially. The details looked good too, with much of the jobs increase coming from full time hires (30.8k). The jobless rate fell to 5.7% compared to 5.8% in October. Taken together with the hawkish slant to the RBNZ statement, the data will help keep the AUD and NZD resilient to any sell off in risk trades.

The decision by the RBNZ to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.5% came as no surprise. However, Governor Bollard did shift away from the earlier pledge not to hike interest rates until H2 10 and stated that a hike could come around the middle of 2010. The RBNZ also upgraded its growth forecasts. A rate hike could come even earlier in my view, a factor likely to keep the NZD well supported.

Markets will digest more interest rate decisions today, in the UK and Switzerland. No change is likely from both the BoE and SNB but the issue of QE will remain at the forefront, especially given the split decision by the BoE MPC at the last meeting. As for the SNB the usual concerns about CHF strength are likely to be expressed but the tone of the SNB’s comments are likely to remain dovish, expressing little urgency to begin implementing an exit strategy.

The US data slate is light but does include weekly jobless claims and October trade data. There will be more interest than usual on the claims data given the surprise in last week’s payrolls report. Claims have been on an improving trend declining at a more rapid pace than previous recessions and markets will eye the numbers to determine whether they point to further improvement in payrolls or whether they suggest the November data was merely an aberration.

Posted in Bond markets, central banks, Economics, Economy, Europe, FX, Interest rates, Middle East, Monetary Policy, US. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

When things are just not right

November 20, 2009 — Mitul Kotecha

One knows when things aren’t quite right when a football team wins a game by using a hand to help score a goal rather than a foot.  In this case it was French striker Thierry Henry who helped France to qualify for the world cup at the expense of Ireland.  To English soccer fans this looks like decidedly similar situation to the “hand of god” goal scored by Diego Maradona during the 1986 World Cup. 

Similarly things don’t look quite right with markets at present and what began as a loss of momentum turned into a bit of a rout for US (Thursday) and Asian stocks (Friday).  In turn risk appetite has taken a turn for the worse whilst the USD is on a firmer footing.  Profit taking or simply repatriation at year end may explain some of the market moves but doubts about the pace and magnitude of economic recovery are playing a key role.

Ireland has called for a replay of the soccer game but markets may not get such an opportunity as sentiment sours into year end.  Markets chose to ignore some relatively positive news in the form a  stronger than forecast increase in the Philly Fed manufacturing survey and the improving trend in US jobless claims leaving little else to support confidence. 

The only event of note today was the Bank of Japan policy decision.   Interest rates were kept unchanged at 0.1%.  Given that official concerns about deflation are intensifying interest rates are unlikely to go up for a long while and we only look for the first rate hike to take place in Q2 2011.  The BoJ may however, be tempted to buy more government bonds in the future if deflation concerns increase further.   USD/JPY was unmoved on the decision, with the currency pair continuing to gyrate around the 89.00 level though higher risk aversion suggests a firmer JPY bias. 

In the short term increased risk aversion will play positively for the USD against most currencies, especially against high beta currencies such as the AUD, NZD and GBP.   Asian currencies will also be on the back foot due to profit taking on the multi-month gains in these currencies.

Posted in Asia, central banks, Currencies, Economics, emerging markets, equity markets, FX, Interest rates, Japan, US. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »
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