EUR/JPY set to slip further

January 9, 2012 — Mitul Kotecha

The EUR looks set to plumb lower over coming weeks but how quickly will it fall given that market positioning is already at record low levels? The absence of official investors such as central banks who are normally strong buyers of EUR on dips, helped to pull the rug from under the EUR, resulting in a fairly sharp lunge lower. While it is easy to jump on the bandwagon expecting a further sharp fall this week, it may be worth taking some caution given the extent of short market positioning.

Admittedly officials in Europe are not too worried, and quite rightly so, given that the currency remains overvalued and still far too strong. Moreover, FX options market have also not reacted too much to the move, suggesting that for most, the decline in the EUR is not something to be too excited about. The underperformance of European data releases relative to the US over recent weeks adds further ammunition to those calling for a weaker EUR and assuming this divergence in data performance continues, the EUR will find it difficult to sustain much of a recovery.

Meanwhile the JPY continues to remain firm despite the generally firm USD tone this year. The JPY did give up some ground at the end of last week but shows little inclination to head back above the 78.0 level. Japanese official worries about JPY strength were evident in comments from Finance Minister Azumi who rolled out the usual mantra that they were watching FX market closely. He also expressed growing concerns about the drop in the EUR, highlighting concerns about the impact on Japanese exports as EUR/JPY drops to multi year lows.

Unfortunately for Japanese officials it appears that the EUR will get weaker and at least over the short term, the JPY stronger. EUR/JPY looks set to drop to its October 2000 low around 89.00 over coming weeks against the background of continued pressure in the Eurozone and elevated risk aversion.

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Dollar, Euro and Yen Outlook 2012

December 16, 2011 — Mitul Kotecha

The USD index is set for another positive year over 2012 but it will not be a star performer. The USD has been a clear beneficiary of the crisis in the eurozone and will continue to find sustenance unless there are signs of a concrete resolution on the horizon. My forecasts still see the USD index rising to 82.5 by the end of 2012. This would be well below the highs reached during the height of the financial crisis in March 2009 around 89.

While economic recovery is expected to continue over 2012 it will be a tepid one, with prominent downside risks. Therefore, one of the factors likely to hold the USD back is the likelihood that the Fed embarks on a fresh round of quantitative easing which I believe will take place sometime in H1 2012, specifically aimed at mortgage backed securities.

I am not bullish on the EUR but it is clear in my view that there is an underlying degree of support for the currency. In 2012 I expect more downward pressure on the currency. News on the economic front will become more negative and the region is set to slip into recession, albeit a mild one (with downside risks). In contrast, the outlook for the US looks somewhat better even if the recovery will look tame compared to past growth.

Relatively weak growth will maintain the pressure on the ECB to ease monetary policy and further interest rate cuts are likely in the months ahead. Easier policy will be another factor that undermines the EUR. Even if the there was some progress on a resolution to the eurozone debt crisis I doubt that the stress on markets would be relieved overnight. While the crisis has and will not deliver a death blow to the EUR it will mean that investors, even official ones, take a much more cautious view on the currency going forward. I look for EUR/USD to fall to around 1.26 by end 2012.

The JPY has been one of the most well behaved currencies over past months, remaining within a relatively tight range. Unfortunately for the Japanese authorities and for the economy the JPY has failed to build on any negative momentum caused by intervention. I expect USD/JPY and EUR/JPY to edge higher over coming months but the upside for both currency pairs is likely to be gradual over 2012.

Much will depend on whether risk appetite improves and more importantly on yield differentials between Japan and other countries. My end 2012 forecast for USD/JPY and EUR/JPY remain at 85 and 107, respectively but its worth noting that I now expect a firmer JPY in March 2012 against both USD and EUR than previously forecast due to the likelihood of prolonged uncertainty and elevated risk aversion over Q1 2012

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Contagion spreading like wildfire

November 16, 2011 — Mitul Kotecha

EUR continues to head lower and is is destined to test support around 1.3484 versus USD where it came close overnight. Contagion in eurozone debt markets is spreading quickly, with various countries’ sovereign spreads widening to record levels against German bunds including Italy, Spain, France, Belgium and Austria. Poor T-bill auctions in Spain and Belgium, speculation of downgrades to French, Italian and Austrian debt, and a weak reading for the November German ZEW investor confidence index added to the pressure.

A bill auction in Portugal today will provide further direction but the precedent so far this week is not good. The fact that markets have settled back into the now usual scepticism over the ability of authorities in Europe to get their act together highlights the continued downside risks to EUR/USD. Although there is likely to be significant buying around the 1.3500 level, one has to question how long the EUR will continue to skate on thin ice.

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to leave policy unchanged today but the bigger focus is on the Japanese authorities’ stance on the JPY. Finance Minister Azumi noted yesterday that there was no change in his stance on fighting JPY speculators. To some extent the fight against speculators is being won given that IMM speculative positions and TFX margin positioning in JPY has dropped back sharply since the last FX intervention to weaken the JPY.

However, this has done little to prevent further JPY appreciation, with USD/JPY continuing to drift lower over recent days having already covered around half the ground lost in the wake of the October 31 intervention. Markets are likely therefore to take Azumi’s threats with a pinch of salt and will only balk at driving the JPY higher if further intervention takes place. Meanwhile, USD/JPY looks set to grind lower.

GBP will take its direction from the Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report and October jobs data today. There will be particular attention on the willingness of the BoE to implement further quantitative easing. A likely dovish report should by rights play negatively for GBP but the reaction is not so obvious. Since the announcement of GBP 75 billion in asset purchases a month ago GBP has fared well especially against the EUR, with the currency perhaps being rewarded for the proactive stance of the BoE.

Moreover, the simple fact that GBP is not the EUR has given it a quasi safe haven quality, which has helped it to remain relatively resilient. Nonetheless, GBP will find it difficult to avoid detaching from the coat tails of a weaker EUR and in this respect looks set to test strong support around GBP/USD 1.5630 over the short term.

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Risk appetite remains fragile

November 11, 2011 — Mitul Kotecha

Fortunately for the USD the situation in the eurozone has become so severe that the problems in the US are all but being ignored. Even in the US, attention on the nomination of the Republican presidential candidate has over shadowed the looming deadline for an agreement on medium term deficit reduction measures.

The Joint Select Committee on deficit reduction is due to submit a report to Congress by November 23 and a final package would be voted on by December 23. A lack of agreement would trigger automatic deficit reduction of $1.2 trillion, a proportion of which would take place in 2012. If this is the case it could potentially tip the economy into recession, necessitating QE3 and consequently a weaker USD.

Reports that the eurozone could fall apart at the seams as countries exit have shaken confidence, yet the EUR has managed to hold above the psychologically important 1.35 level. The strong reluctance of the European Central Bank (ECB) to embark on unsterilized bond purchases and to act as lender of the last resort, suggests that the crisis could continue to brew for a long while to come.

Nonetheless, the EUR found a semblance of support from news that former ECB vice-president Papademos was named new Prime Minister of Greece, the ECB was reported to be a strong buyer of peripheral debt, Italy’s debt auction was not as bad as feared, affirmation of the EFSF’s AAA rating by Moody’s and France’s AAA rating by S&P (following an erroneous report earlier). EUR/USD remains a sell on ralliesup to resistance around 1.3871, with initial resistance around the 1.3665 level.

The underlying pressure over the near term is for further JPY strength in the face of rising risk aversion and a narrowing in the US yield advantage over Japan. Given that the situation in the eurozone remains highly fluid as well as tense, with little sign of resolution on the horizon, risk aversion is set to remain elevated. Moreover, yield differentials have narrowed sharply and the US 2-year yield advantage over Japan is less than 10bps at present.

Against this background it is not surprising that the Japanese authorities are reluctant to intervene aggressively although there are reports that Japan has been conducting secret interventions over recent weeks. However, given that speculative and margin trading net JPY positioning have dropped significantly the impact of further JPY intervention may be less potent. In the meantime USD/JPY will likely edge towards a break below 77.00.

Swiss officials have continued to jawbone against CHF strength, with the country’s Economy Minister stating that the currency remains massively overvalued especially when valued against purchasing power parity. Such comments should be taken at face value but the CHF is unlikely to embark on a weaker trend any time soon.

Although the EUR/CHF floor at 1.20 has held up well while the CHF has lost some its appeal as a safe haven the deterioration in the situation in the eurozone suggests that the CHF will not weaken quickly.

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European agreement at last

October 27, 2011 — Mitul Kotecha

Following a drawn out period of discussions European officials have finally agreed on a haircut or debt write off of around 50% of Greek debt versus 21% agreed in July. In addition the EFSF bailout fund will be leveraged up to about EUR 1.4 trillion, with the new EFSF scheduled to be in place next month. The haircut for Greek debt is aimed at ensuring that Greece’s debt to GDP ratio drops to 120% by 2012.

The reaction of markets was initially favourable with EUR/USD breaching 1.40 and risk / high beta currencies bouncing. I doubt that the upward momentum in EUR can be sustained, however, with plenty of questions on the mechanics of the deal, especially about leveraging the EFSF fund, remaining. I suspect that the EUR may have already priced in some of the good news.

Data releases, especially in the US are offering markets more positive news. Following on from firm readings for US durable goods orders and new home sales, today’s US Q3 GDP expected to reveal an acceleration in growth to a 2.5% annual rate, will help to alleviate recession fears to some extent. The USD may benefit if the data reduces expectations of further Fed quantitative easing especially given the recent comments from some Fed officials indicating that the door is open to more QE.

In Japan attention was firmly fixed on the Bank of Japan policy meeting and the prospects for FX intervention to weaken the JPY. In the event the BoJ kept its overnight rate unchanged at 0.1% as expected and expanded its credit program by JPY 5 trillion and asset purchase fund to JPY 20 trillion.

The measures are aimed to easing deflation pressure but the real focus in the FX market is whether there is any attempt to the weaken the JPY. I am currently in Tokyo and here there is plenty of nervousness about possible FX intervention being imminent. Speculation of such intervention will likely help to prevent USD/JPY sustaining a drop below the 75.00 over coming days.

Posted in Currencies, Economics, Economy, Europe, eurozone, Financial crisis, Fiscal/Budget, France, FX, Germany, Greece, Interest rates, Italy, Japan, Monetary Policy. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »
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