Watch out for the pitfalls in H2 2009

July 6, 2009 — Mitul Kotecha

Equity and credit markets have begun the second half of 2009 looking quite fatigued, which is not a good sign ahead of the Q2 earning season.   Perhaps the fact that markets have come so far in such a short period of time has itself prompted a pause. An alternative explanation is that the summer lull is kicking in, with many investors taking the end of H1 2009 as an excuse to book profits and wait until activity picks up again post summer holidays.  A more worrying and more likely explanation is that the massive improvement in market sentiment seen in H1 2009 is  giving way to uncertainty.

Relief that there will be no collapse of the global financial system is not sufficient to keep the momentum in equity and credit markets going into the second half of the year. Until now there has been plenty of less negative news and use of the now worn phrase “green shoots”, but little information to judge the magnitude and speed of recovery going forward.

There are plenty of factors that will dampen recovery in the months ahead. Higher unemployment, massive wealth loss and increased savings will provide a clear downdraft to the global economy. Banks will be increasingly laden with bad loans due to credit card delinquencies, commercial real estate defaults and other sour loans and are unlikely to step up lending in a hurry. In addition, it is still unclear how quickly toxic debt will be removed from banks’ balance sheets, which will act as another impediment to recovery.

Risks outside the US remain significant. Although the outlook for China is improving it is unclear whether the momentum of growth in the country will continue once current stimulus measures are utilised. Much will also depend on whether China and other export economies can shift growth impetus from external demand to domestic demand.

Moreover, concerns about the dollar’s use as a reserve currency continue to intensify as various large reserve holders attempt to diversify away from the dollar.  Although a dollar collapse is unlikely the risk that foreign investors reduce their exposure to US Treasuries remains a threat to the dollar.   This could push up long term interest rates and in turn mortgage rates in the US.  

The European economy is a particular riskto global recovery, with only a gradual recovery expected.  In particular, the biggest Eurozone economy Germany is struggling in the wake of a collapse in exports and a lack of domestic demand. Moreover, banking sector issues remain unresolved especially as there has been little information on European bank stress tests. The relative strength of the euro and inability of some countries in the Eurozone to devalue their way out of the downturn will also dampen recovery prospects.   These factors suggest that Europe will lag the recovery in other countries such as the US and UK where the policy response has arguably been more aggressive.  

The jobs market will lag the recovery process but there are signs that things are becoming less severe.  The pace of job losses in many countries is lessening.   In the US for example, non farm payrolls report revealed that average monthly job losses in the second quarter of 2009 at 436k were much lower than the 691k average monthly job losses in the first quarter.  The bad news however, is that unemployment rates continue to rise.  In the US the unemployment rate is likely to head to around 10% from 9.5% currently and this will be echoed in Europe where the unemployment is at a 10-year high of 9.5% currently. 

The bottom line is that the market rally may have been justified so far but there is little to carry the momentum forward. Equity valuations dropped to low levels in March but can be hardly considered cheap at present. The improvements in indicators of market stress have also reached dramatic levels and going forward there will be plenty of pitfalls in the months ahead.

Posted in bank rescue, central banks, China, Currencies, Economics. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . 3 Comments »

Recovery efforts pay off in the first half of 2009

July 2, 2009 — Mitul Kotecha

At the end of last year it looked distinctly like the global financial system was on the verge of meltdown and that the global economy was about to implode.  The change in market sentiment since has been dramatic.  Various banking sector bailouts, the pledge of as much as $2 trillion to support the US financial system, passage of the $819 billion stimulus plan by the US administration and G20 agreement pledging $1 trillion for the World Economy, were major events over the first half of the year which helped to turn sentiment around. 

More rate cuts by many central banks and expansion of quantitative easing, with the Fed purchasing $300 billion in Treasuries, and the ECB unveiling a EUR 60 billion covered bond purchase plan, provided a further boost to recovery efforts. This was coupled with the passage of US bank stress tests which at least gave some transparency on the state of US banks’ balance sheets. 

These efforts appear to be paying off as confidence has improved, data releases especially in Q2 09 have revealed a much smaller pace of deterioration, whilst some US banks felt confident enough to pay back TARP funds, marking a turning point for the US financial sector. 

Markets reacted to all of this news positively once it became clear that a systemic crisis had been avoided; most US and European indices, with the notable exception of the Dow ended H1 2009 with positive returns.  However, their gains were less impressive when compared to the strong gains in some emerging equity markets, with indices in China and India registering gains above 50% this year as recovery efforts in emerging markets echoed those in the G10, but with the advantage of far less severe banking sector problems.  

Currency markets have also given up the high volatility seen at the start of the year as many currencies have now settled into well worn ranges.  Measures of equity market volatility have also swung sharply over H1 2009, with the VIX index now less than half of its 20 January peak. Other measures of market stress have undergone significant improvement, with much of this taking place in Q2.   For instance, the Libor-OIS spread dropped to its lowest level since the beginning of 2008 and after peaking at close to 450bps in October 2008, the Ted spread has now dropped to a level last seen in late 2007.  The change in market sentiment over H1 was truly dramatic but there is little or no chance that this will continue in H2 2009 as I will explain in my next post.

Posted in Asia, bank rescue, central banks, China, Currencies, Economics, Economy, equity markets, Europe, Financial crisis, India, US. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . 1 Comment »

Dollar, Euro and Sterling Volatility Within Ranges

June 25, 2009 — Mitul Kotecha

Two steps forward, one step back appears to describe the movement of the US dollar over recent weeks.  Although the dollar is still off its lows registered at the beginning of June it has failed to make much of a recovery.  After a solid start to the week the dollar came under renewed pressure ahead of the FOMC decision but managed to register small gains following the lack of action from the Fed on Wednesday. Overall, the Fed showed slightly less concern about disinflation and became slightly less negative on the economic outlook but there was not much in the Fed statement to impact the dollar strongly.

Some comments by ECB officials noting that European interest rates are unlikely to be cut further and that further expansion of stimulus measures are not needed, likely explained some of the recent bounce in the euro versus dollar, but the massive ECB allocation of EUR 442 billion in its 1-year tender on Wednesday helped to push the euro lower once again.  The demand for funds from banks was extremely strong and the ECB responded by providing a huge amount of emergency credit.  The allocation drove down overnight and long term rates as well as weakening the euro. 

I still believe any gain in the euro will be limited especially as the Eurozone data flow continues to suggest that any recovery will be tepid.  Eurozone June PMIs this week revealed a small rise in the manufacturing index but a surprise fall in the services index. There was also some improvement in the French INSEE business confidence indicator but at most the data pointed to a slower pace of contraction and continue to lag the improvement in similar surveys in the US and UK.   EUR/USD appears to be trapped in a 1.38-1.43 range with little momentum to break either side of this. 

FX markets are set to remain volatile but within ranges.  The failure of the dollar to extend gains amidst thin data flow highlights the lack of direction in markets.  I am still biased towards some dollar upside over coming days but once again currencies will take their cue from equity markets.  The dollar may find some support if US equities continue to struggle; the S&P 500 is finding it difficult to sustain gains above its 200 day (897.2) and 50 day (900.54) moving averages, suggesting some scope for a downside move in US stocks an in turn a firmer dollar if the S&P 500 fails to hold above this level.   

GBP/USD looks resilient despite coming under pressure following comments by BoE Chief economist Spencer Dale that a weak currency was a “key channel” to spur growth.  Although GBP has recovered sharply from its low of 1.3549 touched on 26 January it is still looks undervalued and such comments do not necessarily justify a further drop in GBP.   Although GBP/USD is set to appreciate further over the coming months it could struggle to sustain a break above its 3 June high of 1.6663 over the near term.  The downgrade to UK growth forecasts by the OECD this week and comments by BoE governor King that UK recovery will be a “long, hard, slog” highlight the difficulties ahead.

Posted in central banks, Currencies, Economics, Economy, equity markets, Financial crisis, Interest rates, Monetary Policy, US. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Why the Fed should be in no hurry to hike rates

June 21, 2009 — Mitul Kotecha

Equity markets struggled to gain traction last week and finally lost ground registering their first weekly decline in month.  It finally looks as though markets are succumbing to the inevitable; the realisation that the recovery is going to be a rocky ride but neither will it be rapid or aggressive.  Markets look as though they have just about run out of fuel and after registering major relief that the global economy was not falling into an endless whole and that financial markets were not going to implode, the equity rally has finally come to a point where it will need more than just news about “green shoots” to keep it going. 

One question that has been raised in particular in bond markets and in interest rate futures pricing is whether these “green shoots” have accelerated the timing of the end of quantitative easing and/or higher interest rates.  Although the markets have retraced some of the tightening expectations that had built in following the May US jobs report there will be a lot of attention on whether the Fed will attempt to allay market concerns that current policy settings will result in inflation running out of control and necessitate a hike in interest rates. 

The Fed’s job shouldn’t be too difficult. In usual circumstances the expansion of the money supply undertaken by the Fed would have had major implications for inflation.  However, the circulation of money (money multiplier) in the economy has collapsed during the recession as consumers have been increasingly reluctant to borrow and lenders have become increasingly reluctant to lend.  The end result has been to blunt the impact of Fed policy.  Of course, once the multiplier picks up the Fed will need to be quick to remove its massive policy accommodation without fuelling a rise in inflation.  If it didn’t it would be bad both for long term interest rates as well as the dollar. 

Although the current policy of quantitative easing is untested and therefore has a strong element of risk attached to it the reality is that the Fed is unlikely to have too much of a problem on its hands.  The explanation for this is that there will be plenty of slack in the economy for months if not years to come.  The labour market continues to loosen and as the US unemployment rate increases most probably well in excess of 10%, wage pressures will continue to be driven down.  

In addition there is plenty of excess capacity in the manufacturing sector and as the May industrial production report revealed the capacity utilisation rate dropped to 68.3%, a hefty 12.6% below its average for 1972-2008.  Inflation data continues to remain subdued as revealed by last week’s release core inflation remains comfortable at a 1.8% annual rate.   Weaker corporate pricing power suggests that core inflation will remain subdued over coming months and will even fall further, so there will be little threat to Fed policy.  

The output gap (difference between real GDP and potential GDP) remains wide and according to CBO estimates of potential GDP the economy will end the year growing at around 8% below its full capacity.  Even if the economy grows above potential for the next few years it may only just close the output gap and subsequently begin fuelling inflation pressures.  The bigger risk is that the economy grows slowly over coming years and takes several years to close the output gap. 

Taking a perspective of past Fed rate hikes following the last two recessions, interest rate markets should take some solace.  In 2001 the Fed begin to hike rates until around 2 ½ years after the end of the recession whilst in the 1990-91 recession rates did not go up until close to 3 years following the end of recession.  Arguably this recession is worse in terms of depth and breadth suggesting that it will take a long time before the Fed even contemplates reversing policy.

Posted in Bond markets, central banks, Currencies, Economics, Economy, equity markets, Financial crisis, Interest rates, Monetary Policy, US. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »
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