The stabilisation in risk appetite over recent days looks highly fragile and markets will look to upcoming events in Europe and data releases to determine whether a rally in risk assets is justified. Discussions over the weekend between German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy delivered little in substance apart from a promise that a concrete response to the crisis will be delivered by the end of the month ahead of the 3 November G20 summit.
Both leaders agreed on the need for European banking sector recapitalisation and this issue along with whether or how to leverage the EFSF bailout fund and the extent of private sector participation in any Greek bailout is likely to take growing prominence for markets over coming weeks ahead of the EU summit on 17-18 October. In the meantime, markets may give Eurozone officials the benefit of the doubt but patience will run thin if no progress is made on these fronts.
The US jobs report at the end of last week which revealed a bigger than expected 103k increase in payrolls and upward revisions to previous months will have helped to allay fears about a renewed recession in the US and global economy. Indeed, recent surveys reveal that analysts expected weak US growth rather than recession. This week’s data will help to shore up such expectations with US data including retail sales and consumer confidence likely to outshine European data, including likely declines in industrial production in the region.
Overall, this will help to buoy risk appetite which may leave the USD with less of a safe haven bid but at the same time it will also reduce expectations of more quantitative easing (QE3) in the US, something that will bode well for the USD. Markets are set to begin the week in relatively positive mood but we remain cautious about the ability of risk appetite to be sustained. On balance, firmer risk appetite will play negatively for the USD early in the week but any drop in the USD will be limited by the fragility of risk appetite and potential for risk aversion to intensify again.