Germany Caught in the Contagion

Equity markets came off their lows overnight despite a 236 point drop in the Dow Jones, but sentiment remains extremely fragile and any let up in pressure on risk assets will prove temporary. A weak bond auction in Germany highlights the severity of contagion across Europe. If the core is being hit then there is no safe haven in Europe anymore. On a positive note it might just make German officials finally realise that they need to act quickly to provide solutions to the crisis.

Weak data notably outside the US adds to the malaise, with in particular China’s HSBC November weaker purchasing managers’ indices coming in below the 50 boom/bust level. Europe’s weaker purchasing managers indices highlight the prospects of looming recession while the news in Germany is not only bad on the bond front bad also on the data front. Today’s German November IFO survey will continue in the same vein, with further weakness in this business survey expected.

Bearing in mind the US Thanksgiving holiday today thin liquidity will mean that conditions are ripe for exaggerated market moves. EUR/USD has already sustained a drop below the important 1.3500 level as even the underling strong Asian demand appears to have been pulled back. More downside is expected but technicals suggests that it will be hard trudge lower, with near term support seen around 1.3285 (10 day Bollinger Band). The near term range is likely to be 1.3285-1.3505 although given the US holiday the range may be even tighter.

Aside from the IFO attention today will focus on a meeting between Chancellor Merkel, President Sarkozy and Prime Minister Monti. As usual expect a lot of hot air but little action. Also note there is a general strike in Portugal today protesting against austerity measures in the country.

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