Markets have few leads to trade off following yesterday’s President’s Day holiday in the US. Nonetheless, caution appears to be settling in ahead of this weekend’s Italian elections, especially in Europe.
European Central Bank President Draghi’s address to the EU parliament did little to stir markets as he didn’t elaborate much on his post ECB press conference in February. The most notable comment was that he urged the G20 to have very “strong verbal discipline” on talking about currency movements.
Despite the Italian election caution most risk measures appear to be well behaved. Equity volatility has continued to drop and gold prices have stabilised following the recent sharp decline. The highlight of the data calendar today is a likely gain in the February German ZEW survey.
Currency markets are rangebound but it is notable that USD/JPY has struggled to sustain gains above the 94.00 level, with upward momentum in the currency pair appearing to fade. Comments by Japan’s Finance Minister Aso that the government was not considering changing the central bank law at present or buying foreign bonds helped to dampen USD/JPY.
Although the G20 meeting effectively gave the green light for further JPY declines, a lot is in the price in terms of policy expectations and any further JPY weakness is likely to be much more gradual. USD/JPY 94.46 will offer strong resistance to further upside.
Asian currencies continue to deliver a mixed performance, with JPY sensitive currencies including SGD, KRW and TWD remaining on the back foot. The SGD is the most highly correlated Asian currency with JPY, with a high and significant correlation between the two. Any further drop in JPY will clearly bode badly for SGD but the inability of the JPY to weaken further may help to moderate pressure on the SGD in the near term.
Although the KRW has rebounded over recent days one risk to the currency is continued outflows of equity portfolio capital. South Korea is one of the only countries in Asia to have recorded outflows (around USD 1.2 billion year to date). However, this month the outflow appears to have reversed, with around USD 500 million in inflows registered month to date. In part the outflows of equity capital from South Korea in January reflected concerns about North Korea. Such concerns have receded but the risks remain of more sabre rattling and/or more nuclear tests from the North.