USD/JPY is being buffeted by the conflicting forces of relatively elevated risk aversion and higher US yields, leaving the currency pair in difficult position to sustain gains. Today’s BoJ outcome has the potential to give some direction but its unlikely that the central bank will deliver any surprises after boosting its funding for lending scheme at the last meeting. Nonetheless, additional easing is likely to take place around as early as April. The emergence of US Treasury buyers as 10 year yields approach 2.8% suggests that US yields may be capped for now and it may take the emergence of more positive / less weather impacted data to push yields higher. Consequently USD/JPY will struggle to make much headway over the short term, with resistance seen around 103.77.
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