Host Of Central Banks In Focus

September 13, 2020 — Mitul Kotecha

Well, last week, tech stocks had their worst week since March, with stability far from returning.  While the jury is still out, most still view the pull back in tech stocks as a healthy correction following a prolonged period of gains, blaming increased options activity over recent months for the magnitude of the decline. The buy on dip mentality is likely to continue to prevail, though tech stocks have not yet show any sign of wanting to make a convincing pull back.   

Signs of nervousness are clear; equity volatility remains elevated, but many investors are still sitting on healthy gains over recent months.  Given the low cost of funding, low returns in government bonds, alongside continued strong demand for stay at home electronics and a vaccine that could still take months to arrive, it is hard to see the tech sector falling too far.   

The fall in the pound sterling has been quite dramatic over recent weeks, both against the US dollar and euro.  Fears over a collapse in trade talks with the European Union have intensified.  The sudden waking up of the market to these risks has been provoked by the prospects that the withdrawal agreement with the EU will be torn up, prompting threats of legal action by the EU.

Time is running out to get a deal on the table before the end of the Brexit transition period at the end of the year, but UK Prime Minister Johnson has said that the internal market bill is necessary to prevent “a foreign of international body from having the power to break up our country.” The new legislation is already facing a rebellion in parliament. Against this background its hard to see GBP rally, with the currency likely to be particularly volatile over the coming weeks.

Attention this week will turn to several central bank decisions, with monetary policy makers in Poland (Tue), US (Wed), Brazil (Wed), Japan (Thu), Indonesia (Thu), Taiwan (Thu), South Africa, (Thu), UK (Thu) and Russia (Fri) all scheduled to announce their decisions.  After months of policy easing globally, this week will look rather boring, with none of the above likely to ease further.   

The Fed FOMC meeting will likely capture most attention, but there is potential for disappointment if the Fed does not provide further details on its shift to average inflation targeting in its forward guidance, even as the accompanying statement and Chair Powell’s press conference are likely to sound dovish. The US dollar has continued to stabilize, aided by the drop in GBP, but a dovish Fed could limit further upside in the short term. 

Aside from central bank decisions attention will be on US election polls, which take on more importance as the election creeps closer.  US fiscal stimulus talks have hit a wall, with little chance of progress this week, while US pressure on China and Chinese companies is likely to continue to be unrelenting as elections approach.  On the political front the race to take over Japan’s prime minister following the resignation of Shinzo Abe will conclude this week (Wed).   

Posted in Asia, Asian currencies, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Bond markets, Brexit, central banks, China, coronavirus, COVID-19, Currencies, Economics, Economy, equity markets, Europe, eurozone, Federal Reserve, FX, Indonesia, Interest rates, Japan, Monetary Policy, Politics, Taiwan, Trump, UK, US, US administration. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . 1 Comment »

Will Stability Return?

September 6, 2020 — Mitul Kotecha

After a very nervous end to last week, with US tech stocks leading the sell-off in US equity markets amid lofty valuations, heavy positioning and stretched technical indicators, markets will look for signs that stability will return in the days ahead.  However, the November US election is increasing in prominence as a market driver, something that is beginning to manifest itself in equity volatility and will likely play more of a role for FX and rates markets volatility going forward. 

The fact that there has been little progress between Democrats and the US administration on further fiscal stimulus adds to the uncertainty for markets ahead of US elections.  Also after Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech in which he unveiled a new average inflation strategy, markets will look for this to be reflected in forward guidance. This could happen as early as this month’s FOMC meeting on September 16 but will more likely take place later.

After a torrid several weeks the US dollar made some recovery last week amid short covering, but underlying sentiment remains weak (latest CFTC IMM data shows speculative USD positioning languishing around multi-year lows).  Whether the USD can make a more sustainable recovery remains doubtful in the weeks ahead of US elections and is more difficult given the Fed’s more dovish shift.  However, in the near term there may be more scope for short covering.

Key highlights this week are China Aug trade data today, US Aug CPI (Fri), Bank of Canada meeting (Wed), European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank Negara Malaysia (Thu).  Among these the ECB meeting will be interesting; while a policy change is unlikely the ECB will probably highlight its readiness to act further to address downside inflation risks.  The ECB may also be more vocal about the recent strengthening of the euro to a two-year high, but aside from jawboning, there is little the ECB is likely to do about it. 

Emerging markets assets have benefitted from a weaker USD and but with growth remaining under pressure as likely to be revealed in weak Russian and South African GDP data this week while Covid cases in many EM countries continue to rise rapidly, risks remain high.  China’s trade data will give some early direction this week, but with US-China trade tensions only likely to escalate further, the outlook for emerging markets assets is clouded in uncertainty. 

Posted in Asia, Asian currencies, Bond markets, Canada, central banks, China, COVID-19, Currencies, ECB, Economics, Economy, emerging markets, equity markets, Europe, eurozone, Federal Reserve, Fiscal/Budget, FX, Interest rates, Malaysia, Monetary Policy, Politics, Trade, Trump, US, US administration. Tags: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

US/China – The Gloves Are Off

August 16, 2020 — Mitul Kotecha

The delay in the Phase 1 trade deal review (initially slated for Sat 15 Aug) will come as a disappointment though it was reported that it did not reflect any substantive problem with the trade deal, but rather to give China more time to increase purchases of US goods.  China’s reported desire to include TikToK and WeChat restrictions to the discussions may have also played a part.  The Phase 1 review delay followed by President Trump’s order for ByteDance to divest TikTok’s US operations within 90 days and ending of a waiver allowing US companies to continue selling goods to Huawei, ratchets up tensions another notch.

It is abundantly clear that ahead of US elections in November the gloves have come off.  More is yet come and next steps may involve sanctions against more Chinese companies and eventually even Chinese banks.  China’s reaction continues to be measured, which suggests the broader impact on risk appetite will remain contained for now.  China wants to retain foreign investment and has continued to enact measures to open up to such investment.  Reciprocating sanctions on US companies in China would go against this path and seems unlikely to take place unless tensions worsen further.

However, it is not clear that China’s actions will remain measured. The US administration is set on pushing more sanctions on Chinese individuals and companies in what has become a whole of government approach. This is something that has broad based bipartisan support within the electorate.  The risk of crossing certain red lines, perhaps (though still unlikely as Trump sees this as a key success of his Presidency) by scrapping Phase 1 or perhaps by sanctioning Chinese banks by cutting them out of the USD liquidity and payments system and/or by some sort of military escalation in the South China Sea, could yet lead to a much more significant reaction from China and a more severe impact on global markets.

The likely path however, is that the US administration will try to keep Phase 1 alive even as China is far behind its targets on imports of US goods; according to PIIE through the first 6 months of the year China’s purchases of US goods were 39% (US exports data) or 48% (Chinese imports data) of their year-to-date targets.  Given the gap, in part due to Covid, but also due to initially ambitious targets, the delay in the Phase review should not be a big surprise.  The US may be wiling to give China some room to try to move towards reaching its targets, but the gap will not be easy to bridge.  Regardless, US/China tensions will be an ever present part of the landscape in the months ahead of US elections and markets may not remain as sanguine as they have been so far.

Posted in Asia, Asian currencies, China, coronavirus, COVID-19, Currencies, Economics, emerging markets, equity markets, FX, Hong Kong, Politics, Trade, Trump, US, US administration. Tags: , , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

US Dollar Sliding, Gold At Record Highs

July 27, 2020 — Mitul Kotecha

Risk sentiment has turned south and the US stock rotation out of tech into value has gathered pace, with the Nasdaq ending down for a second straight week.  Gold is turning into a star performer, registering a record high today, while the US dollar continues to lose ground.  Economic activity is slowing, second round virus cases are accelerating in places that had previously flattened the curve, while US- China tensions are heating up.  Attention this week will centre on US fiscal discussions while US-China tensions remain a key focal point.

Reports suggest that Senate Republicans and the US administration have agreed on a $1 trillion coronavirus relief package.  This will be the opening offer in discussions with Democrats (who had passed a $3 trillion package in House in May), with less than a week before unemployment benefits expire.  Whether the $1 trillion on the table will be sufficient to satisfy Democrats is debatable and a figure of around $1.5 trillion looks plausible. Time is running out and pressure to reach a compromise is growing.   Further uncertainty will likely weigh on US markets in the days ahead.

US-China tensions remain a key focus for markets. Worries about a dismantling of the Phase 1 trade deal still looks premature even as China has fallen behind in terms of purchasing US imports.  The closure of the US consulate in Chengdu following the closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston will be seen as a proportionate move, that is unlikely to escalate matters.  Nonetheless, a further escalation is inevitable ahead of US elections in November, with a broad array of US administration officials becoming more aggressive in their rhetoric against China.  As such, further sanctions against Chinese individuals and companies could be on the cards.

The week could prove critical for the US dollar given that it is breaching key technical levels against a host of currencies, with the currency failing to benefit from rising risk aversion recently. While not a game changer the European Union “recovery fund” is perceived as a key step forward for the EU, a factor underpinning the euro.  Key data and events over the week include the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting (Wed), US (Thu) and Eurozone Q2 GDP (Fri) and China purchasing managers indices (PMI) (Fri).  US Q2 earnings remain in focus too.  Before these data releases, today attention turns to the German IFO survey (consensus 89.3) and US durable goods orders (consensus 6.8%).

 

Posted in Asia, central banks, China, coronavirus, COVID-19, Currencies, ECB, Economics, emerging markets, equity markets, Europe, eurozone, Federal Reserve, FX, Hong Kong, Monetary Policy, Politics, Trade, Trump, US, US administration. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

US Earnings, Virus Cases, Dollar & Data

July 20, 2020 — Mitul Kotecha

Last week US equities registered gains, led by value rather than momentum stocks, with US equities closing higher for a third straight week amid low volumes and declining volatility.  However, the S&P 500 is still marginally lower year to date, compared to a 17% gain in the tech heavy Nasdaq index.  In theory this implies more room to catch up for value stocks vs. momentum but I wouldn’t bank on it. If the surge in virus cases equates to renewed lockdowns, the value stock story will likely fail to gain traction until either the virus curve flattens again or a vaccine is found.

Unfortunately Covid-19 infections continue to accelerate, with more than 14 million cases confirmed globally, but mortality rates are likely to be key to the extent that lockdowns intensify. US, Latin America and India are at the forefront, risking another downturn in global activity if lockdowns intensify at a time that concerns about a fiscal cliff in the US have grown.  All of this has to put against vaccine hopes, with some success in various trials, but nothing imminent on the horizon.

Meanwhile the US dollar (USD) remains under pressure, continuing its grind lower since the start of this month, with the euro (EUR) capitalizing on USD weakness to extend gains as it targets EURUSD 1.15.  The USD has maintained its negative relationship with risk, and sentiment for the currency has continued to sour as risk appetite has strengthened.  It’s hard to see the USD turning around soon, especially given uncertainty about renewed US lockdowns, fiscal cliff and US elections.

Over the weekend European Union leaders’ discussions over the “recovery fund” failed to reach a deal though there has been some softening from the “frugal four” on the issue of grants vs. loans.  However, after a third day of meetings there was still no agreement on how much of the recovery fund should be distributed via grants versus loans.  Despite the lack of agreement EUR continues to remain firm against USD and approaching key resistance around 1.1495.

US Q2 earnings remain in focus and this week is particularly busy, with tech earnings under scrutiny (including IBM today).  Last week banks were the main highlight of the earnings calendar, with US banks reporting a very strong quarter in trading revenues amid heightened market uncertainty and volatility, but large loan loss provisions. Aside from earnings expect more jawboning from US officials over China. While there is some focus on whether the US will target Chinese banks with sanctions, it is still likely that the US administration will avoid measures that will roil markets ahead of US elections.  

On the data and event front, highlights over this week include Australia RBA minutes (Tue), Eurozone PMIs (Fri) and policy rate decisions in Hungary (Tue), Turkey (Thu), South Africa (Thu), and Russia (Fri).

Posted in Asia, Asian currencies, Australia, Bond markets, central banks, China, coronavirus, COVID-19, Currencies, ECB, Economics, Economy, emerging markets, equity markets, Europe, eurozone, Fiscal/Budget, FX, Monetary Policy, Trade, Trump, Turkey, US, US administration. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »
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