Is gold losing its lustre?

June 15, 2012 — Mitul Kotecha

Hopes and expectations of more Fed quantitative easing in the wake of a run of weak US data, including the US May jobs report, has been attributable to the bounce in gold prices over recent weeks. However, Fed Chairman Bernanke dampened such hopes in his speech to Congress, in which he did not indicate a desire to move towards more QE. The Fed is unlikely in my view to embark on more QE any time soon.

Clearly, should the Fed implement more QE it will help to renew the attraction of gold. Once again markets will see the consequences of Fed QE as a means to debase the USD. A shift in Fed stance cannot be ruled out if US economic conditions worsen further and/or the Eurozone crisis escalates. Assuming no more QE and no more USD debasement, gold prices ought to decline over coming months.

One of the biggest factors putting downward pressure on gold prices has been the strength of the USD. While I do not expect the USD to continue to strengthen at the same pace as it has done recently, further gradual gains in the currency are likely. My FX forecasts predict a further small gain for the USD index by the end of the year but I also believe that the recent run up in the USD may have been too rapid. Assuming that the USD continues on a gradual upward trajectory I expect it to exert a negative influence on gold prices.

Gold appears to have lost its sensitivity to risk aversion. Indeed, gold’s relationship with risk has actually inverted over recent months, with a negative but significant relationship registered over the past 3 months between gold prices and my Risk Aversion Barometer. In other words as risk aversion goes up, gold prices actually drop.

The lack of reaction to higher risk aversion shows that the lustre of gold as a safe haven has faded as investors pull capital out of this as well as many other asset classes. However, gold’s drop is not unusual when compared to other commodity prices, with oil and copper prices falling too and gold maintaining a strong correlation with these commodities.

Some deterioration in sentiment towards gold prices has been reflected in the drop in speculative appetite for the commodity. Speculative demand for gold hit a cyclical high in August 2011 but since then there has been a steady reduction in appetite for gold from these investors. Indeed, CFTC IMM data reveals that speculative gold positioning dropped well below its three-month average. However, positioning is still well above its all time lows reached in February 2005, suggesting if anything, there is scope for more declines.

On top of the drop in speculative appetite for gold the technical picture has turned bearish. Since March 2009 at the height of the financial crisis the 100 day moving average price of gold had been trading above the 200 day moving average. On 27 March 2012 the 100 day moving average crossed below the 200 day moving average. Moreover, gold is now trading below both the 100 and 200 day moving average prices which sends a bearish technical message. Over the near term some key levels to look for are the 100 day moving average around 1658 on the topside and trendline support around the 1530 level on the bottom.

Another determinant of gold prices is demand from India and China. Growth in both countries is slowing, suggesting that gold demand is also weakening. While I certainly do not expect a collapse in demand from either country I have no doubt that compared to last year the strength of demand will be softer over coming months. Although I still look for a soft landing in China the Indian economic picture has clearly deteriorated while the Indian rupee has weakened. A weaker INR means that has become increasingly more expensive to import gold to India for domestic purchasers.

Overall, a weaker real demand picture taken together with reduced speculative appetite implies little support for gold prices. Moreover, a firmer USD in general will continue to weigh on prices. Perhaps a dose of inflation would help gold prices but there is little risk of this given the still sizeable amount of excess capacity in major economies.

Uncertainty about QE will help to limit any downside pressure on gold prices but elevated risk aversion will provide little assistance to gold. If however, the Eurozone and global picture deteriorates further gold will find itself with a lifeline but only if this means more currency debasement and a Fed engineered lower USD. If not, a further decline is on the cards and I forecast a drop in gold prices to around USD 1475 by the end of the year.

Posted in China, Commodities, eurozone, Federal Reserve, India. Tags: , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Data and earnings focus

January 17, 2011 — Mitul Kotecha

Friday’s round of US data were generally upbeat, highlighting that consumer spending is coming back to life. Inflation pressures however, remain benign at least on the core reading highlighting the Fed’s concern that inflation is running below the level consistent with its mandate. In other words it will be a long time, probably late into 2012 before policy rates increase.

While the Fed is no hurry to raise rates despite a few hawkish rumblings within the FOMC the European Central Bank (ECB) in contrast appears to have become more eager to pull the trigger for higher rates. ECB President Trichet’s hawkish press conference last week set the cat amongst the pigeons and marked a clear shift in ECB rhetoric towards a more hawkish stance.

A very big problem for the ECB is that the eurozone economy is not performing along the lines that its hawkish rhetoric would suggest, especially in the periphery. Growth momentum in the core in contrast, as likely reflected in the January ZEW investor confidence and IFO business confidence survey data this week in Germany, remains positive. Both surveys are likely to stabilize at healthy levels but how long can the likes of Germany drag along the eurozone periphery?

There will be relatively more attention on the meeting of Eurogroup/Ecofin officials, with focus on issues such as enlarging the size of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) bailout fund and development of a “comprehensive plan” to contain the eurozone crisis. Don’t look for any conclusive agreements as this may have to wait until the European Union (EU) Council meeting on 4 February assuming (optimistically given ongoing German resistance) some agreement can even be reached.

Following the success (albeit at relatively high yields) of the eurozone debt auctions last week, sentiment for peripheral debt will face further tests this week in the form of debt sales in Spain, Belgium and Portugal.

The US Martin Luther King Jr. holiday will result in a quiet start to the week for markets but there will be plenty to chew on. This week’s key earnings reports include several banks scheduled to release Q4 earnings. Financials are a leading sector in the rally in equities at present and these earnings will be critical to determine whether the rally has legs.

The US data slate includes January manufacturing surveys in the form of the Empire and Philly Fed, both of which are likely to post healthy gains whilst existing home sales are also likely to rise. This will not change the generally weak picture of the US housing market, with high inventories and elevated foreclosures characterizing conditions. As if to prove this, housing starts are set to drop in December. On the rates front, the Bank of Canada is likely to keep its policy rates on hold this week.

After coming under pressure last week much for the USD will depend on the eurozone’s travails to determine further direction. Concrete evidence of progress at the Ecofin may bolster the EUR further, with resistance seen around 1.3500 but don’t bank on it. The ability of eurozone officials to let down often lofty expectations should not be ignored. In any case following sharp gains last week progress over coming days for the EUR will be harder to achieve.

Posted in Bond markets, central banks, Currencies, ECB, Economics, Economy, equity markets, Europe, eurozone, Federal Reserve, Financial crisis, Fiscal/Budget, FX, Germany, IMF, Interest rates, Ireland, Monetary Policy, Portugal, Spain, US. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »