Will the ECB intervene to support the Euro? (Part 1)

May 21, 2010 — Mitul Kotecha

The EUR has lost around 23% since it all time high in April 2008 when it traded close to 1.6000. The EUR failed to rally even in the wake of the EUR 750 billion European Union / International Monetary Fund support package, a fact that has highlighted the weight of negative sentiment towards the currency. The latest blow to the currency came from the announcement of unilateral measures from Germany to ban naked short selling on sovereign debt and some financial stocks, actions that only highlighted the lack of policy co-ordination within the eurozone.

The rationale for further EUR/USD weakness is clear and justified partly by growth divergence within the eurozone countries, with Germany on the one extreme and weaker Southern European countries on the other. Moreover, relatively weaker overall growth in the eurozone compared to the US economy, a delay in interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB) and ongoing concerns about implementation and execution of deficit cutting plans, will also weigh on the EUR.

The EU/IMF support package and in particular ECB interventions in the Eurozone bond market have managed to alleviate some of the strain on European bond markets, but without similar intervention in the FX markets the EUR has become the release valve for Europe’s fiscal and debt problems. As a result the EUR’s fall has accelerated over recent weeks, only showing any sign of stability as fears of currency intervention increased.

The quickening pace of EUR depreciation has led to growing speculation of FX intervention by the ECB and other central banks to support the currency. I believe intervention is highly unlikely and see little reason for panic about the drop in the EUR. Once markets realise that there is indeed little risk of intervention the EUR will resume its downtrend.

One of the main reasons behind this view is that the EUR is not particularly “cheap” at current levels. In fact, “fair value” estimates based on the OECD measure of purchasing power parity (PPP) suggest that EUR/USD is around 5.6% overvalued at current levels, based on an implied PPP rate of around 1.17. Therefore, the drop in the EUR over recent months has only brought it back close to PPP fair value estimates.

Moreover despite the fact that there has been a large nominal depreciation of the EUR its trade weighted exchange rate has declined by much less, around 8.5% since the beginning of the year and around 11.3% since its high in October 2009. Although the trade weighted EUR is around its lowest level since October 2008, taking a longer term view shows that it is slightly above its average over the past 20-years.

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Capital Flowing Out of Europe

May 18, 2010 — Mitul Kotecha

When investors’ concerns shift from how low will the EUR go to whether the currency will even exist in its current form, it is blatantly evident that there is a very long way to go to solve the eurozone’s many and varied problems. As many analysts scramble to revise forecasts to catch up with the declining EUR, the question of the long term future of the single currency has become the bigger issue. Although the EUR 750 billion support package was hailed by EU leaders as the means to prevent further damage to the credibility of the EUR, it has failed to prevent a further decline, but instead revealed even deeper splits amongst eurozone countries.

Although the European Central Bank (ECB) confirmed that it bought EUR 16.5 billion in eurozone government bonds in just over a week, with the buying providing major prop to the market, private buyers remain reluctant to renter the market. As a result of the ECB’s sterilised interventions bond markets have stabilised but the EUR is now taking the brunt of the pressure, a reversal of the situation at the beginning of the Greek crisis, when the EUR proved to be far more resilient. Reports that some large institutional investors have exited from Greek and Portuguese debt markets whilst others are positioning for a eurozone without Greece, Portugal and Spain, suggest that the ECB may have taken on more than it has bargained for in its attempts to prop up peripheral eurozone bond markets.

As was evident in the US March Treasury TICS report it appears that a lot of the outflows from Europe are finding their way into US markets. The data revealed that net long-term TIC flows (net US securities purchases by foreign investors) surged to $140.5 billion in March. The bulk of this flow consisted of safe haven buying of US Treasuries ($108.5 billion), although it was notable that securities flows into other asset classes were also strong especially agencies and corporate bonds, which recorded their biggest capital inflow since May 2008. Asian central banks also reversed their net selling of US Treasuries, with China investing the most into Treasuries since September 2009. Anecdotal evidence corroborates this, with central banks in Asia diversifying far less than they were just a few months ago.

This reversal of flows is unlikely to stop anytime soon. It is clear that enhanced austerity measures in the eurozone will result in weaker growth and earnings potential. This will play negatively on the EUR especially given expectations of a superior growth and earnings profile in the US. Evidence of implementation, action and a measure of success on the fiscal front will be necessary to begin the likely long process of turning confidence in the EUR around. This will likely take a long time to be forthcoming. EUR/USD has managed to recover after hitting a low of around 1.2235 but remains vulnerable to further weakness. The big psychological barrier of 1.20 looms followed by the EUR launch rate of around 1.1830.

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EUR/USD to test 1.2510, GBP/USD heading for 1.4500

May 13, 2010 — Mitul Kotecha

Following on from the EUR 750 billion EU / IMF package European governments are starting to hold up to their end of the bargain. Spain announced a bunch of austerity measures. The measures aim at cutting the country’s budget deficit by an additional EUR 15 billion from 11.2% of GDP in 2009 to close to 6% in 2011. This was accompanied by some better economic news as Spain edged out of a close to 2-year recession in Q1 2010.

Evidence that some action is being taken on the fiscal front in Europe accompanied a slightly stronger than expected reading for Eurozone GDP in Q1 2010, helping risk appetite to improve overnight. Portugal was also able to find some success in its sale of EUR 1 billion of 10-year bonds, with a bid to cover ratio of 1.8 and a premium of only 18bps above the yield at April’s sale. Portugal has also pledged to cuts its budget deficit further than initially planned, aiming for a deficit of 7.3% of GDP this year.

Of course, pledges need to be followed by action and implementation and execution will be essential to bring markets back on side given the likely damage inflicted on confidence in the whole EUR project. Continued skepticism explains why EUR/USD has failed to take much notice to the developments in Spain and Portugal, with the currency continuing to languish, heading towards technical support around 1.2510 in the short-term.

The new UK coalition government is also moving quickly to appease markets, with plans to cut the budget deficit in the country by GBP 6 billion this year. The plans failed to have a lasting impact on GBP, which was dealt a blow by the dovish interpretation of the Bank of England’s quarterly inflation report released yesterday. GBP/USD continues to struggle to gain a foothold above 1.5000 and technical indicators suggest the currency pair is still heading lower, with a move to 1.4500 likely over the short-term.

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Greece Bailed Out, Euro Unimpressed

May 3, 2010 — Mitul Kotecha

After much debate eurozone ministers along with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), finally announced an emergency loan package for Greece amounting to  EUR 110 billion. In return for the bailout Greece agreed to enhanced austerity measures. The good news is that the package covers Greece’s funding requirements until 2012, and is sufficient to avoid debt restructuring and default. The loan package has also removed uncertainty ahead of bond redemption on May 19th.

One aim of the package was to prevent contagion to other eurozone countries, especially Portugal and Spain, where there has been growing pressure on local bond and equity markets. However, the path ahead is strewn with obstacles and it is too early to believe that the package has ensured medium term stability for the EUR.

The challenges ahead are two-fold, including both the implementation of the measures in Greece in the face of strong domestic opposition and the approval of the loans by individual country parliaments within the eurozone, both of which are by no means guaranteed.

The toughest approval process is likely to be seen in Germany where the government will face a grilling in parliament and a challenge in the constitutional court ahead of official approval of the package. European Union leaders are scheduled to meet on May 7th to discuss the parliamentary approval of loans to Greece whilst German officials meet on the same day.

Implementation risk is also high. Although the Greek government appears to be sufficiently committed, opposition within Greece is growing; various strikes planned over coming days. Aside from union opposition, the scale of the budgetary task ahead is enormous, having never been undertaken on such a large scale in recent history. The sharp decline in growth associated with the austerity measures will make the task even harder.

The EUR bounce on the news has been limited, with the currency failing to hold onto gains. The announcement seems to have triggered a “buy on rumour, sell on fact” reaction, with the size of the loan package falling within the broad estimates speculated upon over the last week. The lack of EUR bounce despite the fact that going into this week the CFTC Commitment of Traders report revealed record net short speculative positioning in EUR/USD, reveals the extent of pessimism towards the currency.

The EUR may benefit from a likely narrowing in bond spreads between Greece and Germany. Given that sovereign risk is being increasingly transferred from the periphery to the core, the net impact on bond markets may not be so positive for the EUR. Over the short-term there will be strong technical resistance on the upside around EUR/USD 1.3417 but more likely the currency pair will target support at around 1.3114.

The Herculean task ahead for the Greek government suggests that markets will not rest easy until there are credible signs of progress. Investors would be forgiven for having a high degree of scepticism given the degree of “fudging” involved in the past, whilst Greek unions will undoubtedly not make the government’s task an easy one by any means. Such scepticism will prevent a sustained EUR recovery and more likely keep the EUR under pressure.

As noted above the divergence in growth for the eurozone economy between Northern and Southern Europe will make policy very difficult. Moreover, the EUR is set to suffer from an overall weak trajectory for the eurozone economy, relative to the US and other major economies. The widening growth gap with the US will also fuel a widening in bond yield differentials, a key reason for EUR/USD to continue to decline to around or below 1.25 by the end of the year.

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Some Respite For The Euro

April 25, 2010 — Mitul Kotecha

Following several days in which confidence in Greece’s ability to weather the storm was deteriorating, news that Greece asked for EU/IMF help helped to boost global markets and the EUR.  Meanwhile strengthening economic and earnings news helped to provide an undercurrent of support for markets, which boosted the end week rally in risk appetite.  

A 27% jump in US new home sales in March, a firm durable goods orders report as well better than expected earnings, with around 80% of companies reporting first quarter earnings beating expectations, highlight that US economic recovery is becoming increasingly well entrenched.  This is likely to be confirmed by the release of US Q1 GDP this week, set to register over 3% annualised quarterly growth.  

In Europe the picture is far more divergent, with exporting countries such as Germany doing well as evidenced from surveys such as the IFO and ZEW surveys, but in contrast the club med countries are not doing so well.  The highlights of the data calendar this week are April confidence indicators and the flash reading of Eurozone CPI.  Confidence indicators are likely to reveal some improvement, but despite Friday’s EUR/USD bounce, the data will be insufficient to prevent EUR/USD continue to move lower, with 1.3150 still a firm target over coming weeks.  

The official request for aid from Greece from the EU/IMF begins a new chapter in the long running saga for the country.  Greece will officially detail the amount of aid needed in a letter to the European Commission and European Central Bank who will then decide whether to approve it.  

A few dates to note are the maturing of EUR 8.5 billion in bonds on May 19, the completion of discussion with the IMF, EU and ECB on May 6 and state elections in Germany on May 9, which could throw a spanner in any financial support from Germany for Greece.   Meanwhile Greek unions are threatening further strikes to protest against austerity measures that Greece needs to carry out to win any aid package.   

Aside from Greece, attention will continue to be focussed on earnings but the main event of the week will be the Fed FOMC meeting on 27/28 April. Whilst a no change outcome is highly likely, with interest rates set to be left at between 0-0.25%, there will be plenty of attention on whether the Fed removes the comment that policy rates will remain low for an “extended period”. If the comment is removed the statement will be taken in somewhat of a hawkish context, which would boost the USD.

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