Euro slides as Greek worries intensify

September 12, 2011 — Mitul Kotecha

The USD ended last week on high a note having overcome speeches by Fed Chairman Bernanke and President Obama. Bernanke’s lack of detail on potential further Fed stimulus offered the USD a lifeline as there was no mention of QE3 but nervousness may mount ahead of the September 21 FOMC meeting.

This week’s data releases (including retail sales, inflation, industrial production and regional manufacturing surveys may offer some direction to the USD and it is likely that the data over coming days will look less negative than in past weeks, giving the USD some support. Having broken above its 200 day moving average around 76.1986 for the first time in a year the USD index is set to begin the week in positive mode and will likely extend its gains over coming days.

In sharp contrast, EUR/USD crumbled at the end of last week dropping through its 200 day moving average despite positive news from Germany (rejection of bills in the constitutional court) and Italy (passage of austerity measures). The European Central Bank (ECB) did not help the EUR’s cause however, with the change in its stance to a more balanced assessment of risks from its more hawkish stance previously.

However, the real damage occurred as speculation of a Greek default intensified and ECB hawk Stark resigned from the ECB council, highlighting the divisions within the governing board. This week attention will remain on Greece as negotiations between the Troika (ECB, EU and IMF) and Greek officials resume.

Ahead of the talks Greece approved a further EUR 2 billion in austerity measures over the weekend but nonetheless, despite denials by Greek officials speculation of a debt default will continue to hammer the EUR lower. Near term technical support is seen around 1.3525 for EUR/USD.

GBP found some relief last week following the decision by the Bank of England to leave policy unchanged though it is unlikely to be able to make much if any headway against the USD over coming sessions as expectations of further UK quantitative easing may simply have been pushed back to the November meeting.

Inflation data this week will give further clues to policy but once again there is likely to be no sign of any easing in inflation pressure, limiting the room for maneuver for the BoE. Moreover, a weak outcome for UK retail sales in August will maintain the trend of soft UK data keeping up the pressure for more BoE action. As a result GBP will struggle against the USD but given that problems in Europe look even worse, GBP will likely extend gains against the EUR this week.

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Awaiting US jobs data

September 1, 2011 — Mitul Kotecha

The USD continues to languish as market hopes/expectations of further US Federal Reserve stimulus including possibly more quantitative easing or QE3 weigh on the currency. There may also be some hesitation to buy USDs ahead of tomorrow’s August jobs report. The omens from the US ADP jobs data yesterday were not particularly positive, with a below consensus 91k private jobs reported.

As the Fed FOMC minutes earlier this week highlighted there are a few in the FOMC who are prepared to take more aggressive action which would equate to an even weaker USD. Ahead of the jobs data today’s August ISM manufacturing survey will offer some direction for markets but if our forecast of a sub 50 outcome proves correct it will only play into expectations of more Fed stimulus leaving the USD on the back foot.

EUR/USD struggled to sustain any move above 1.45 this week but has continued to withstand various peripheral bond concerns without too much difficulty, an ability it has managed to maintain for the past several months. Although it has pulled back EUR/USD may struggle to sustain a drop below its 100-day moving average at 1.4362.

Although there have been various fresh worries over recent days such as the collateral issues between Greece and Finland as well as well as questions about German demands for Greece’s bailout, the EUR is likely to remain unperturbed. Whether the EUR will be able to withstand growing evidence of slowing growth in the eurozone is another question altogether, especially as it is leading to a reassessment of European Central Bank (ECB) policy expectations, something that will likely be confirmed at next week’s ECB meeting.

GBP has had problems of its own to deal with and has failed to capitalise on any USD tone while losing ground against the EUR. Data yesterday did not help, with consumer sentiment falling for a third straight month according to the GfK confidence index. It appears that speculation of further Fed monetary stimulus may also be rubbing off on GBP, with potential for more UK QE likely to act as a weight on the currency.

Bank of England MPC member Posen added fuel to the fire in comments that he made supporting the need for central banks to undertake more QE. GBP looks destined for more weakness in the short term, with support around GBP/USD likely 1.6111 likely to be tested. A below 50 reading for the August manufacturing PMI today, will only add to downside pressure.

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USD weaker, EUR resilient, JPY supported, CHF pressure

August 30, 2011 — Mitul Kotecha

Why has the USD come under pressure even after Fed Chairman Bernanke failed to signal more QE? The answer is that Bernanke offered hope of more stimulus and gave a shot in the arm to risk trades even if QE3 was not on the cards. Consequently the USD has looked vulnerable at the turn of this week but we suspect that a likely batch of soft US data releases over coming days including the August jobs report at the end of the week, ISM manufacturing survey on Thursday and consumer confidence today, will erase some of the market’s optimism and leave the USD in better position. The FOMC minutes today may also give some further guidance to the USD as more details emerge on the potential tools the Fed has up its sleeve.

The EUR’s ability to retain a firm tone despite the intensification of bad news in the eurozone has been impressive. Uncertainty on various fronts in Germany including but not limited to concerns about the outcome of the German Bundestag vote on the revamped EFSF on September 30, German commitment to Greece’s bailout plan and German opposition party proposals for changes to bailout terms including the possibility of exiting the eurozone, have so far gone unnoticed by EUR/USD as it easily broke above 1.4500. EUR was given some support from news of a merger between Greece’s second and third largest banks. Likely weak economic data today in the form of August eurozone sentiment surveys may bring a dose of reality back to FX markets, however.

The lack of reaction of the JPY to the news that Japan’s former Finance Minister Noda won the DPJ leadership and will become the country’s new Prime Minister came as no surprise. The JPY has become somewhat used to Japan’s many political gyrations over recent years and while Noda is seen as somewhat of a fiscal hawk his victory is unlikely to have any implications for JPY policy. Instead the JPY‘s direction against both the USD and EUR continues to be driven by relative yield and in this respect the JPY is likely to remain firmly supported. Both US and European 2-year differentials versus Japan are at historic lows, with the US yield advantage close to disappearing completely. Until this picture changes USD/JPY is set to languish around current levels below 77.00.

EUR/CHF has rebounded smartly over recent weeks, the latest bounce following speculation of a fee on CHF cash balances, with the currency pair reaching a high of 1.1972 overnight. The pressure to weaken the CHF has become all the more acute following the much bigger than anticipated drop in the August KOF Swiss leading indicator last week and its implications for weaker Swiss growth ahead. The ‘risk on’ tone to markets following Bernanke’s speech has provided a helping hand to the Swiss authorities as safe haven demand for CHF lessens but given the likely weak slate of economic releases this week his speech may be soon forgotten. Nonetheless, the momentum remains for more EUR/CHF upside in the short term, at least until risk aversion rears its head again.

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No QE3 but Bernanke gives some hope

August 29, 2011 — Mitul Kotecha

Not only did Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke not discuss the potential for more quantitatiive easing QE3 but he also did not discuss many other options for Fed policy at Jackson Hole last Friday. The onus has now shifted to the 2-day Fed FOMC meeting on September 21 where markets are looking (hoping) for fresh policy measures. Such hopes helped US equity markets bounce back after initially reacting negatively to Bernanke’s speech.

Bernanke provided some hope to markets that the US economy wasn’t sliding into the abyss while offering the potential for further Fed stimulus even if QE3 wasn’t quite on the cards. This hope was sufficient to spur markets higher. However, importantly Bernanke noted the limitations of monetary policy in stimulating growth over the medium term.

In this respect there will be plenty of attention on President Obama’s speech on September 5 in which markets will be looking for a response from the administration at a time when the economy is becoming an increasingly important issue for the electorate.

In the meantime there are plenty of data releases to contend with this week including the August US jobs report, ISM manufacturing survey, US consumer confidence and various confidence surveys in Europe. Unfortunately the news will not be positive as the data releases are set to reinforce concerns of economic slowdown. The US jobs report is likely to reveal a limited, around 75k increase in non-farm payrolls according to consensus while the ISM manufacturing survey is set to drop into contraction territory.

Consequently markets may start the week in risk on mood but this is unlikely to last given renewed economic worries. Moreover, Eurozone peripheral country travails continue to exasperate markets, with concerns that some members of German Chancellor Merkel’s coalition plan to vote against the revamped EFSF bailout fund and news that two German banks have yet to commit on Greece’s bailout plan. Against this background the EUR continues to defy gravity around the 1.45 level versus USD but may yet come down to earth with a bang.

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Japan FX Measures Underwhelm

August 24, 2011 — Mitul Kotecha

Currencies continue to show remarkable stability in the face of elevated risk aversion which has prompted huge volatility in other asset markets. Although FX volatility has risen over recent weeks its rise is nothing compared to the jump in the VIX ‘fear gauge’ equity volatility measure. FX markets are in some form of limbo where there are conflicting forces at play and where there is no obvious currency to play. The lack of clarity in markets suggests that this situation will not change quickly.

The USD (index) is trading at the lower end of its recent ranges and verging on a retest of its July 27 low around 73.421, with the currency perhaps suffering from expectations that Fed Chairman Bernanke will announce a desire to embark on more quantitative easing at Friday’s Jackson Hole symposium. Its losses could quickly reverse as such expectations are quickly dashed.

Indeed, while Bernanke will likely keep all options open any hint at QE3 is unlikely as the Fed maintains a high hurdle before any prospect of further quantitative easing is entertained. One option on the table is ‘sterilised’ large scale asset purchases which would not result in an increase in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. This would be far less negative for the USD than a fresh round of QE and may even prompt a rally in the currency as markets shift away from the idea of QE3.

The USD will benefit from high risk aversion except against safe havens such as the CHF and JPY. In this respect the USD remains a better bet than the EUR which has failed to garner much benefit from renewed ECB peripheral bond buying. Nonetheless, data yesterday failed to feed into negative EUR sentiment despite mixed manufacturing surveys and a sharp drop in the German ZEW investor confidence survey. EUR/USD remains trapped in a broad 1.42-1.45 range.

News that Moody’s ratings agency has downgraded Japan’s sovereign ratings by one notch to Aa3 is unlikely to have much impact on the JPY. Moody’s left the outlook stable while unlike the US and Europe around 95% of Japanese debt is held domestically, suggesting little FX and JGB impact. USD/JPY continues to garner some influence from yield differentials and given that the US bond yield advantage versus Japan has continued to narrow, USD/JPY continues to face downward pressure.

Japan announced measures to deal with JPY strength including the creation of a $100 billion emergency credit facility. However, the main impact on the JPY could come from increased monitoring of FX transactions with firms having to report on FX positions held by dealers. The statement made no comment on FX intervention and this is where there will be most disappointment for JPY bears. Overall, the actions are somewhat underwhelming and are unlikely to have much impact on the JPY. If anything, the JPY may actually strengthen given the lack of comment on FX intervention. USD/JPY downside could face strong technical support around 75.93, however.

Posted in central banks, Currencies, Economics, Economy, Europe, eurozone, Federal Reserve, Fiscal/Budget, FX, Germany, Japan, US. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »
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