Greek Confusion, India Tightening

March 22, 2010 — Mitul Kotecha

It is highly interesting that markets could take fright from a rate hike in India but this appears to be what has happened. India’s surprise 25bps rate hike has provoked another bout of risk aversion whilst the lack of any concrete agreement on a framework for a Greek bail out dealt a further blow to confidence. FX tensions between the US and China have not helped, with China threatening retaliation to any US move to name the country as a currency manipulator in the mid April US Treasury report.

Should we really be worried by a rate hike in India or China? Whilst the India rate move reflects the fact that emerging market central banks are moving far more aggressively to raise rates than their G7 counterparts, global fears that India’s move will dampen recovery prospects are unfounded. Monetary tightening in India and China and other economies is taking place against the backdrop of economic strength not weakness.

As such the global impact on growth should be limited. Rising inflation pressure in Asia is reflection of the much quicker economic recovery, relatively low rates and undervalued currencies in the region. Not only will central banks in Asia have to raise interest rates but will also have to allow further currency appreciation.

There is still plenty of confusion about a bail out for Greece ahead of the 25-26th March EU summit. German Chancellor Merkel dampened expectations of a bailout by stating that it was not even on the agenda for the summit. In contrast, EU President Barroso has pushed EU members to agree on an explicit stand-by aid agreement for Greece as soon as possible.

There is also disagreement about whether there should be any IMF involvement, with Germany favouring some help from the Fund whilst France opposes it. Meanwhile, the Greek Prime Minister has reportedly given an ultimatum that should no aid plan be forthcoming at the EU summit, Greece will turn to the IMF for assistance.

All of this suggests more downside for EUR/USD, with a test of support around 1.3422 looming. In the event that the EU summit offers good news for Greece, EUR/USD sentiment could turn quickly so a degree of caution is warranted. Speculative sentiment for the EUR has improved according to the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders (IMM) data for the week to 16th March, with net short EUR positions at their lowest since the beginning of February. Nonetheless, the short covering seen over the past week could come to an abrupt end should there be no aid package for Greece.

The most volatile currency over the past week was GBP/USD and after hitting a high of around 1.5382 it has slid all the way back to around the 1.5000 level. Much of this was related to the gyrations in EUR/USD but GBP took on a life of its own towards the end of the week and has not been helped by comments by BoE MPC member Sentence who highlighted the risk of a “double-dip” recession in the UK.

GBP is highly undervalued and market positioning is close to a record low but a sustainable recovery looks unachievable at present. Attention this week will centre on the 2010 UK Budget announcement and markets will scrutinise the details of how the government plans to cut the burgeoning budget deficit. Failure to restore some credibility to the government’s plans will dent GBP sentiment further and lead to a sharper decline against both the EUR and USD.

Posted in Asia, central banks, China, Currencies, Economics, Economy, emerging markets, Europe, Financial crisis, Fiscal/Budget, FX, Germany, Greece, India, Interest rates, Monetary Policy, UK. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . 1 Comment »

What To Watch This Week

March 13, 2010 — Mitul Kotecha

A “crisis over” mode is being adopted across markets as worries about Greece wane and economic data provides support to recovery hopes, whilst importantly allaying fears of a “double-dip”. Equities, bonds and currencies are reacting accordingly; equities are close to year highs, bond yields have risen and spreads have narrowed, whilst the USD and JPY are weaker, and conversely risk currencies are stronger. Even EUR/USD pushed higher on its way to 1.3800 as a number of stops were cleared and shorts were squeezed.

The coming weeks will be important to determine whether there is any staying power in the upward move in risk assets. A lot of the February data in the US will likely be obscured by bad weather however, including industrial production figures this week, leaving markets with little to go on. In Europe, the key release is the March German ZEW investor confidence survey, and better news in Greece, will likely prevent a sharper decline in confidence.

After both the Swish National Bank (SNB) and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unsurprisingly left policy unchanged last week this week sees the turn of the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan (BoJ). Neither central bank is likely to shift policy but the Fed statement will be looked upon for guidance on the timing of rate hikes. The comment in the FOMC statement that the Fed Funds rate is expected to remain low for an “extended period” is set to be retained, even if some FOMC members are itching to remove it soon.

The BoJ meeting will be particularly interesting. I have just returned from a week long trip in Japan and on the ground there is plenty of speculation that the BoJ will take extra action to combat deflation and weaken the JPY. Additionally comments by Japan’s Prime Minister and Deputy PM have highlighted the potential for action to weaken the JPY although the usual market hesitation to sell JPY into fiscal year end and repatriation talk may mean a weaker JPY path is not straightforward.

Greece will not move too far from the spotlight, with EU officials likely to give the official stamp of approval on Greece’s deficit cutting measures and plenty of discussion at the Eurogroup Finance Minister’s meeting and Ecofin meeting early in the week. Moreover, weekend press reports suggest that a bailout up to EUR 25 billion is close to being agreed. Other topics of conversation will include the possible formation of a European Monetary Fund, though this looks like it will be a non-starter given the many objections to it.

Overall, risk appetite is set to continue its upward trajectory, likely keeping the USD on the back foot. Some deterioration in USD sentiment was reflected in the fact that net long aggregate USD speculation positioning has turned negative again according to the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders (IMM) report. Much in terms of FX direction will depend on what the FOMC says rather than does tomorrow.

EUR/USD may take a crack at resistance around 1.3840 on improving Greek news but it is difficult to see much upside from current levels. The one to watch will be the JPY, especially if the BoJ embarks on aggressive actions at this week’s meeting, leaving USD/JPY plenty of scope to test resistance around 92.16.

Posted in Bond markets, central banks, Currencies, Economics, Economy, equity markets, Europe, Federal Reserve, Financial crisis, Fiscal/Budget, FX, Germany, Greece, Interest rates, Japan, Monetary Policy, US. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

What to watch

March 7, 2010 — Mitul Kotecha

US February non-farm payrolls released at the end of last week put the finishing touches to a week that saw risk appetite continue to improve each day. There were no big surprises from the various central bank decisions including the RBA, BoE and ECB last week though Malaysia’s central bank did surprise by hiking 25bps. The RBA’s 25bps hike was a close call but in the event the Bank delivered a 25bps hike too.

Sentiment towards Greece has improved in the wake of the announcement of fresh austerity measures by the Greek government, which provoked a short covering EUR/USD rally from around 1.3435 lows though the EUR never really showed signs of embarking on the sort of rebound the massive short EUR speculative position had suggested.

US jobs report revealed that non-farm payrolls dropped by 36k and was all the more remarkable given the potentially very negative impact of severe weather distortions to the data. The data provides the setting for a firm start to the week in terms of risk appetite which will likely put the USD under a bit of pressure into the week.

This week’s events include central bank decisions in New Zealand and Switzerland. The RBNZ has already indicated that it sees no reason to raise interest rates in H1 and an unchanged decision will come as no surprise to the market. The NZD offers better potential for appreciation than the AUD in the short term and I suspect that a “risk on” tone at least early in the week will keep the Kiwi supported.

The SNB in Switzerland is also unlikely to offer any surprises in its rate decision with an unchanged outcome likely. It appears that the Bank has take a somewhat more relaxed tone to the strength of the CHF and any comments on the currency will be scrtunised for hints of intervention.

It probably isn’t much of a shock to expect Greece to remain in the spotlight this week as markets continue to deliberate whether Greece needs financial aid and if so, whether it will be provided by EU countries such as Germany and/or France, at least in terms of some form of debt guarantee.

Further tensions within Greece, with more strikes in the pipeline will test the resolve of the government to carry through austerity measures while likely acting as a cap on any EUR upside over coming days. I still think EUR/USD 1.3789 is a tough nut to crack.

Meanwhile, GBP/USD looks like it will find it tough going to gain much traction above 1.50 with political uncertainties in the form of a likely hung parliament as well as what looks like various efforts by the BoE officials to talk GBP down, likely to prevent an real recovery.

Posted in Australia, central banks, Currencies, Economics, Economy, Europe, Financial crisis, Fiscal/Budget, FX, Greece, US. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

All Eyes On Greece

March 3, 2010 — Mitul Kotecha

I remain a skeptic but market sentiment continues to improve, helped by firmer data and expectations that Greece’s woes are on the path to being resolved. Greece is expected to announce further austerity measures including further spending cuts and tax hikes, which will be aimed at appeasing EU concerns and passing the March 16th test set by the EU. This could pave the way for some form of debt guarantee scheme and a better reception to a likely sale of up to EUR 5 billion in 10 year Greek bonds.

These measures will allow the EUR to recover some of its recent losses in the short term after dropping to new 2010 lows against the USD around 1.3435, but gains are likely to be limited given the many uncertainties remaining including fiscal problems in other European countries and weak growth ahead. If EUR/USD can sustain a break above the 20-day moving average level around EUR/USD 1.3630 it will put the next resistance level of 1.3747 into target, which given record short EUR speculative positioning may happen quite quickly. I suggest rebuilding short EUR positions on a move to this level.

Commodity currencies continue to be favoured and despite only a brief spike following the RBA’s decision to hike interest rates yesterday AUD/USD has managed to traverse the 0.90 level and looks well placed to build on its gains helped by a firm 0.9% QoQ reading for Australian GDP in Q4. Nonetheless, AUD/USD 0.9147 looks like a near term cap on the currency. For bullish commodity currency trades the NZD may offer a little better value and short AUD/NZD may be the way to go from here. Note that NZD positioning is below the 3-month average according to positioning data. In contrast to the RBA, the Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged, but its statement highlighted that the prospect of quantitative easing had receded, which has effectively lifted a weight off the shoulders of the CAD.

All of this leaves the USD on the back foot, with further direction coming from the US February ADP jobs report, ISM non-manufacturing survey and Fed’s Beige Book. The ADP data and ISM employment component will give further clues to Friday’s February US jobs report for a 50k drop in payrolls is expected. Service sector Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) will also be released across the eurozone and the UK and both are likely to sustain moves into expansion territory.

The rebound in EUR/USD was a trigger for further selling in USD/Asian currencies. Asian currencies remain highly correlated with local equity market performance and have benefited from a strong return of equity portfolio inflows over recent days. Only Vietnam has registered outflows this week, with South Korea and Taiwan registering the biggest inflows. Indeed, South Korea has seen the biggest inflows of portfolio capital compared to other Asian countries so far this year, with inflows of around $933 million.

There is not much data in the region to provide direction for Asian currencies today though the South Korean industrial production report will be closely watched. Despite a small monthly drop expected, output likely expanded at very healthy 40%+ pace annually. Overall, USD/Asians are likely to remain under downward pressure in line with the general pressure on the USD, but direction will continue to come from equity markets.

Posted in Asia, Australia, central banks, Commodities, Currencies, Economics, Economy, emerging markets, Europe, Financial crisis, Fiscal/Budget, FX, Greece, Interest rates, Monetary Policy, US. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Better Levels To Sell

March 1, 2010 — Mitul Kotecha

It is questionable how long the slight improvement in risk appetite at the beginning of this week lasts given the fickle nature of market sentiment at present and propensity for more disappointment. More than likely any relief will be short-lived given 1) there are still major concerns about fiscal/debt problems in Greece, Spain, Portugal, etc 2) the sharp decline in economic activity that various austerity plans will lead to and 3) rising social/labour unrest due to cuts in spending and hikes in taxes that need to be implemented.

Attention remains firmly fixed on Greece’s woes whilst global growth concerns have reappeared following some disappointing data releases in the US last week as well the decline in China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in February, released overnight, which although obscured by the timing of Chinese Lunar New Year holidays, suggests that China’s economy is losing some of its recent strong momentum.

Speculation of a rescue plan for Greece will likely give some support to the beleaguered EUR though it may only end up providing better levels to sell the currency. EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Rehn is scheduled to meet with Greek Prime Minister Papandreou today against the background of talks about the possibility of EUR 25 billion in aid to Greece using state owned lenders to buy Greek debt. Any aid will likely come with demands for more action to reduce Greece’s yawning budget deficit which will fuel further weakness in economic activity.

A key test of sentiment towards Greece’s austerity plans will be the market reception to an upcoming sale of as much as EUR 5 billion in 10-year Greek bonds. Given the reassurances given by the EU the sale of bonds will likely not be too problematic. As an indication, Greek 10-year bond yields dropped sharply on Friday as sentiment improved.

The bounce in Greek debt was accompanied by a firmer EUR/USD which rebounded to a high of around 1.3667 as markets covered short positions. It’s probably way too early to suggest that the EUR has began a sustainable rally however, and more likely it has settled into a new range, with support around the 2010 low of 1.3444. The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders’ (IMM) data revealed a further increase in net short EUR positioning to a new record low in the week to 23rd February. This highlights both the weight of pessimism on the currency as well as significant potential to rebound.

Conversely, the IMM data reveals that net USD positions are at their highest in almost a year and well above their three-month average, suggesting that USD positioning is looking a bit stretched though its worth noting that positioning is still well off its record high. Nonetheless, with a bailout for Greece in the offing, risk appetite could gain a stronger foothold this week, in turn keeping the USD capped.

As for the EUR, although a lot of bad news is in the price, for the currency to rebound on a sustainable basis it will require fiscal/growth worries to recede. Despite talk of Greek aid, there is a long way to go before Europe’s fiscal/debt problems are resolved.

Posted in China, Currencies, Economics, Economy, Europe, Financial crisis, Fiscal/Budget, FX, Germany, Greece, Interest rates. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »
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