EUR boosted, USD under pressure

March 15, 2011 — Mitul Kotecha

Market attention remains fully focussed on events in Japan especially related to the country’s nuclear facilities. Risk aversion has spiked higher as a result, with ongoing Middle East tensions adding to the risk off tone. CHF is a key beneficiary of safe haven demand but the picture for JPY is obscured by repatriation expectations on one hand and FX intervention risks/Bank of Japan liquidity injections on the other, keeping USD/JPY clsoe to the 82.00 level. In contrast the AUD is vulnerable to a drop below parity with the USD on Japan worries, especially as Australia is a key destination for Japanese investment and therefore potential for reversal of such flows if Japanese institutions repatriate funds.

The EUR recovered over recent days as worries about the eurozone periphery ease and peripheral bonds spreads narrow. It is only a matter of time before overly long market positioning catches up with the EUR especially as the prospects of further interest rate support to the currency looked limited; markets have already priced in 75bps of policy rate hikes in the eurozone this year, which looks appropriate. It is difficult to see markets pricing in any more tightening than this over coming weeks. Despite its bounce back EUR/USD will struggle to break resistance around 1.4036.

Markets will digest the fallout from the informal EU leaders meeting last Friday which prepared the groundwork for the official meeting on 24/25 March. The initial reaction of the EUR appears to be positive but there is a significant risk of disappointment if the outcome of the meeting on 24/25 March does not live up to expectations. Indeed although Friday’s meeting resulted in an agreement in principle of a new “pact for the Euro” much will depend on the eventual details later this month.

Leaders also agreed on lowering interest rates to Greece by 100bps, and in principle enlarging the scope of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) bailout fund to EUR 440 billion. The main positive surprise was opening the door for the fund to purchase eurozone debt. Data releases will offer little support to the EUR this week, with limited gains in the March German ZEW investor confidence survey today likely to leave markets unperturbed.

The USD’s gains last week proved short-lived and the currency will be tested by another relatively dovish Fed FOMC statement today and a benign reading for core CPI inflation in February. The Fed FOMC meeting is unlikely to deliver any changes to the Fed’s stance and whilst there has recently been some speculation that the Fed will soon remove its “extended period” comment, this is unlikely to happen any time soon. The statement will remind markets that the Fed is in no rush to alter its policy settings, an outcome that may limit the ability of the USD to strengthen this week even if data releases continue to remain on the positive side, including manufacturing survey and industrial production over coming days.

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What’s driving FX – Interest rates or risk?

December 13, 2009 — Mitul Kotecha

The November US retail sales report has really set the cat amongst the pigeons. For so long we have become accustomed to judging the move in the USD based on daily gyrations in risk aversion. Well, that may all be about to change. There was an inkling that all did not look right following the release of the November jobs report which unsurprisingly helped to boost risk appetite but surprisingly boosted the USD too.

It was easy to dismiss the USD reaction to year end position adjustment, markets getting caught short USDs etc. What’s more the shift in interest rate expectations following the jobs report in which markets began to price in an earlier rate hike in the US was quickly reversed in the wake of Fed Chairman Bernanke’s speech highlighting risks to the economy and reiterating the Fed’s “extended period” stance.

However, it all has happened again following the release of the November retail sales data, which if you missed it, came in stronger than expected alongside a similarly better than forecast reading for December Michigan confidence. The USD reaction was to register a broad based rally as markets once again moved to believe that the “extended period” may not be so extended after all.

Interest rates will become increasingly important in driving currencies over the course of the next few months but if anyone thinks that the Fed will shift its stance at this week’s FOMC meeting, they are likely to be off the mark. No doubt the Fed will note the recent improvement in economic data but this is highly unlikely to result in a change in the overall stance towards policy.

Further improvements in US data this week including industrial production, housing starts, Philly Fed and Empire manufacturing may lead markets to doubt this but the Fed calls the shots and a potentially dovish statement may act to restrain the USD this week. Also, it’s probably not a good idea to rule out the influence of risk appetite on currencies just yet and with a generally positive slate of data expected, firmer risk appetite will similarly act as a cap on the USD this week.

Other than the US events there is plenty of other potentially market moving data to digest this week. More central banks meet this week including the Riksbank, Norges Bank and Bank of Japan. No change is expected from all three but whilst the Riksbank is set to maintain a dovish stance the Norges Bank meeting is a closer call. So soon after the emergency BoJ meeting, a shift in policy appears unlikely but the pressure to increase Rinban (outright JGB buying) operations could throw up some surprises for markets.

Europe also has its fair share of releases this week including the two biggest data for markets out of the eurozone, namely, the German ZEW and IFO surveys as well as the flash December PMI readings. The biggest risk is for the ZEW survey which could suffer proportionately more in the wake of recent sovereign concerns in the Eurozone. Sovereign names may still lurk to protect the downside on EUR/USD and if the USD finds it tougher going as noted above, the EUR may be able to claw back some of its recent losses.

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