What To Watch This Week

March 13, 2010 — Mitul Kotecha

A “crisis over” mode is being adopted across markets as worries about Greece wane and economic data provides support to recovery hopes, whilst importantly allaying fears of a “double-dip”. Equities, bonds and currencies are reacting accordingly; equities are close to year highs, bond yields have risen and spreads have narrowed, whilst the USD and JPY are weaker, and conversely risk currencies are stronger. Even EUR/USD pushed higher on its way to 1.3800 as a number of stops were cleared and shorts were squeezed.

The coming weeks will be important to determine whether there is any staying power in the upward move in risk assets. A lot of the February data in the US will likely be obscured by bad weather however, including industrial production figures this week, leaving markets with little to go on. In Europe, the key release is the March German ZEW investor confidence survey, and better news in Greece, will likely prevent a sharper decline in confidence.

After both the Swish National Bank (SNB) and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unsurprisingly left policy unchanged last week this week sees the turn of the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan (BoJ). Neither central bank is likely to shift policy but the Fed statement will be looked upon for guidance on the timing of rate hikes. The comment in the FOMC statement that the Fed Funds rate is expected to remain low for an “extended period” is set to be retained, even if some FOMC members are itching to remove it soon.

The BoJ meeting will be particularly interesting. I have just returned from a week long trip in Japan and on the ground there is plenty of speculation that the BoJ will take extra action to combat deflation and weaken the JPY. Additionally comments by Japan’s Prime Minister and Deputy PM have highlighted the potential for action to weaken the JPY although the usual market hesitation to sell JPY into fiscal year end and repatriation talk may mean a weaker JPY path is not straightforward.

Greece will not move too far from the spotlight, with EU officials likely to give the official stamp of approval on Greece’s deficit cutting measures and plenty of discussion at the Eurogroup Finance Minister’s meeting and Ecofin meeting early in the week. Moreover, weekend press reports suggest that a bailout up to EUR 25 billion is close to being agreed. Other topics of conversation will include the possible formation of a European Monetary Fund, though this looks like it will be a non-starter given the many objections to it.

Overall, risk appetite is set to continue its upward trajectory, likely keeping the USD on the back foot. Some deterioration in USD sentiment was reflected in the fact that net long aggregate USD speculation positioning has turned negative again according to the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders (IMM) report. Much in terms of FX direction will depend on what the FOMC says rather than does tomorrow.

EUR/USD may take a crack at resistance around 1.3840 on improving Greek news but it is difficult to see much upside from current levels. The one to watch will be the JPY, especially if the BoJ embarks on aggressive actions at this week’s meeting, leaving USD/JPY plenty of scope to test resistance around 92.16.

Posted in Bond markets, central banks, Currencies, Economics, Economy, equity markets, Europe, Federal Reserve, Financial crisis, Fiscal/Budget, FX, Germany, Greece, Interest rates, Japan, Monetary Policy, US. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Euro Still Vulnerable

February 18, 2010 — Mitul Kotecha

Markets have become rather skittish, with attention gyrating between sovereign deficit/debt concerns on the one hand and better news on the corporate and economic front on the other.  This week the latter appears to be gaining the upper hand helped by an easing of concerns about Greece. Although the Greek saga is by no means close to an end, especially given the new deadlines set by the EU Commission on adherence to budget cuts, the chances of the worst case scenario of default or pull out from the EU looks to have diminished. 

Renewed attention on other EU members, especially in light of the derivatives transactions carried out by Greece and potentially by other European countries to disguise the extent of their budget problems suggests that there is still more pain ahead. Nonetheless, it is increasingly clear that investors are differentiating between Europe and the rest of the world much to the chagrin of the EUR.  

Differentiation between the eurozone and the US was particularly apparent in the wake of stronger than forecast earnings and data in the US. Two more companies joined the three-quarters of S&P 500 companies beating earnings forecasts whilst economic reports including US January industrial production and housing starts came in ahead of forecasts.  This pattern is set to continue today, with the US Philly Fed manufacturing index set to increase to around 17 in February from 15.2 in January. 

In contrast, data in Europe has been much less impressive, with for example, the February ZEW survey of investor confidence recording its 5th consecutive decline in February.  The eurozone economic news may look a little better in the form of likely increases in manufacturing Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) but unless the data reveals particularly strong readings the growing perception that Europe is falling behind in the recovery process will remain in place.

Despite the improvement in risk appetite the USD has taken a firmer tone, appearing to react more to positive data and implications for a reduction in policy accommodation by the Fed.  In particular, the USD was spurred by the FOMC minutes of the January 26-27 meeting, in which the Fed debated its exit strategy from quantitative easing.  Some officials even went as far as pushing for asset sales in the “near future” to reduce the size of the Fed’s balance sheet.

Even though the USD has taken a firmer tone it will continue to be buffeted by the conflicting forces of improved risk appetite and shifting interest rate expectations.  Correlations reveal that risk is still the dominant FX factor suggesting that there may still be some further downside left for the USD as risk appetite improves. 

Although commodity currencies have also come under pressure due to the generally firmer USD tone overnight, the downside in these currencies is likely to prove limited especially given strong data releases.  For example, data overnight revealed that business confidence rose to its highest level in 15 years in Australia.  Added to upbeat comments from RBA deputy governor Lowe and strong labour market data, it highlights the growing probability of a March rate hike by the RBA.

The EUR remains the weak link and although it may benefit from easing Greek concerns the growing evidence of a relatively slower economic recovery in the eurozone suggests any upside in the EUR will be limited.  Having dropped below technical support around 1.3580, EUR/USD looks vulnerable to a further push lower in the short-term.

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Calming the Tiger

February 17, 2010 — Mitul Kotecha

As markets enter the year of the Tiger a somewhat calmer tone appears to be ensuing, with risk appetite edging higher helping equities and the beleaguered EUR to recover some lost ground.  US stocks were helped by a firmer than expected reading for the Empire manufacturing survey (to 24.91 in Feb) and a slight uptick in the US NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) index (to 17 in Feb) but consumer confidence remained weak as indicated by the decline in the weekly reading of ABC Consumer Confidence (-49).  

On the other side of the pond the better than expected February ZEW survey (a survey of investor confidence) in Germany (45.1) helped sentiment although it still recorded a decline from the previous month as Greek fiscal/debt concerns weighed on financial market participants’ confidence.  The bigger impetus came from comments by Greek Finance Minister Papaconstantinou who said there would be no need to for a bailout of the country.

Tensions over Greece eased further following news that tax collectors in the country called off a planned strike, helping to allay some concerns that unions will block planned spending cuts.   On the policy front, the EU Council ratified Greece’s plans but with strings attached, giving the country one month to present a report on the timetable for implementing budget cuts for 2010 and three months to outline policy measures required to cut the deficit below 3% by 2012.

Meanwhile, commodity prices have pushed higher helping currencies such as the AUD and NZD to strengthen.  Moreover, the AUD was boosted by more hawkish interest rate expectations following the release of the minutes of the latest RBA policy meeting which indicated that the Reserve Bank was merely pausing in its rate cycle.  Expectations of a rate hike in March increased as a result.

Overall, the recent rally in the USD is looking increasingly overdone and some reversal is likely over coming weeks.  The fact that market positioning has reached extreme levels in particular in the case of the EUR highlights scope for some recovery in the currency, especially now that the worst case scenario of a Greek default has passed.  The outlook for commodity currencies is even more bullish as risk appetite improves further.     

If anything, data today is likely to give further support to the recovery story, with US industrial production and housing starts expected to post healthy gains.  The Fed FOMC minutes may offer some additional insight into the debate over the implementation of exit strategies but there is unlikely to be much elaboration from the recent comments by Fed Chairman Bernanke in his speech to the US Senate in which he hinted that a rise in the discount rate is not far off.  

Risk currencies including many Asian currencies are likely to benefit from the improvement in risk appetite over the short term.  EUR/USD will likely strengthen as more short positions are covered but will face strong technical resistance around 1.3839.   Asian currencies have been resilient to the recent rise in risk aversion and this is likely to continue over the coming weeks.  As risk appetite recovers currency plays including long AUD/JPY , and even some further upside in EUR/USD look favourable.

Posted in Asia, Australia, central banks, Commodities, Currencies, Economics, Economy, emerging markets, equity markets, Europe, Financial crisis, Fiscal/Budget, FX, Germany, Greece, Interest rates, Monetary Policy, US. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Selling Risk Trades On Rallies

February 4, 2010 — Mitul Kotecha

Disappointing earnings as well as a weaker than expected outcome for data on the health of the US service sector (the ISM non-manufacturing index failed to match expectations, coming in at 50.5 in January versus consensus of 51.0) has weighed on markets, undoing the boost received from the generally positive manufacturing purchasing managers (PMIs) indices earlier in the week. It was not all bad news however, as earnings from Cisco Systems beat expectations Meanwhile US ADP jobs data fell less than expected, dropping 22k whilst data for December was upwardly revised. These are consistent with a flat outcome for January non-farm payrolls.

Various concerns are still weighing on confidence. Sovereign ratings/fiscal concerns remain high amongst these and although much has been made of the narrowing in Greek debt spreads, attention now seems to be turning towards Portugal. Greece is also far from being out of the woods, and whilst the European Commission accepted Greece’s economic plans the country would be placed under much greater scrutiny by the EC.

The US has not escaped either, with Moody’s warning that the US AAA credit rating would come under pressure unless more stringent actions were taken to reduce the country’s burgeoning budget deficit. The move follows the US administration’s forecast of a $1.565 billion budget deficit for 2010, the highest as a proportion of GDP since the second world war, with the overall debt to GDP ratio also forecast to rise further.

The current environment remains negative for risk trades and the pullback in high beta currencies has been particularly sharp over recent weeks. Sentiment for the NZD was dealt a further blow from a surprisingly weak Q4 jobs report in New Zealand. Unemployment rose to a decade high of 7.3% over the quarter whilst employment growth contracted by 0.1%. The pull back in wage pressures will also be noted by interest rate markets, as it takes some of the pressure off the RBNZ to raise rates anytime soon.

Data in Australia will not help sentiment for the AUD too. Australian retail sales dropped by 0.7% in December, a worse than expected outcome. The data will only serve to reinforce market expectations that the RBA will no hike interest rates as quickly as previously expected. Nonetheless, I would caution reading too much into the data, with real retail sales volumes rising by a solid 1.1% over Q4 whilst other data showed a strong 2.2% jump in building approvals.

The overall strategy against this background is to sell risk trades on rallies. There are still too many concerns to point to a sustained improve in risk appetite. Moreover, the market is still long in many major risk currencies. Asian currencies have so far proven more resilient to the recent rise in risk aversion however, a reflection of the fact that a lot of concerns are emanating from the US and Europe. However, Asian currencies will continue to remain susceptible to events in China, especially to any further measures to tighten policy.

Further USD strength against this background is likely, which could see EUR/USD testing support around 1.3748, AUD/USD support around 0.8735, and NZD/USD support around 0.6916.

Posted in Asia, Australia, central banks, China, Currencies, Economics, Economy, emerging markets, equity markets, Europe, Financial crisis, Fiscal/Budget, FX, Interest rates, Monetary Policy, US, US administration. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

US Dollar Déjà vu

December 18, 2009 — Mitul Kotecha

The USD is in a win-win situation at present.  Good economic data in the US helps to advance expectations of US monetary tightening, lending the USD support, regardless of the positive impact on risk appetite.  Similarly, bad economic news is also supporting the USD as it leads to higher risk aversion.  Either way the USD has surged over the past few weeks, appreciating by close to 5% since its low on 25 November. 

There was a similar but directionally opposite move in the USD last year taking place from almost the same time.  The USD index hit a high around 21 November 2008 but fell by over 10% in just less than a month.  If the same pattern is repeated this year the USD index has much further to strengthen although it is worth noting that the drop in the USD last year reversed practically to this day a year ago, with the USD subsequently rising by close to 13% in the next few months. 

Given that the move at the end of last year may not be the best comparison given the distortions due to the crisis and massive repatriation to the US in Q1 2009 it’s worth looking at what happened in 2006 and 2007 for a better comparison.   From the beginning of December 2006 to 11 January 2007 the USD strengthened by 3.5% but then dropped by around 4.5% within the next 3 months.  Similarly, the USD strengthened by close to 4% from the end of November 2007 to 20 December 2007.  However, the USD dropped by over 8% in the three months after.  So what I am saying is that it is way too early to suggest that the USD rebound will be sustained over coming months and judging by past evidence all its doing is proving better levels to sell for a subsequent decline over Q1 2010.   

Is the USD really in a win-win situation? Well, the more plausible explanation is perhaps a bit more simplistic.  It’s year end and the market is squaring up, with FX moves being exaggerated by thinning liquidity.  There is some support to this theory from the CFTC Commitment of Traders IMM data which revealed a sharp reduction in net aggregate USD short positions in the latest week, with a further sharp reduction in net short positions expected in next week’s release. 

Whilst it is too early to buck the trend yet, going into early next I look for a reversal of the recent appreciation in the USD against the background of improving risk appetite and US interest rates that are unlikely to go for a long while yet.

Posted in Currencies, Economics, FX, Interest rates, US. Tags: , , , , , , , , . 1 Comment »
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