Cyprus vote awaited

March 19, 2013 — Mitul Kotecha

The big market mover overnight was the VIX ‘fear gauge’ spiking in the wake of increased risk aversion. Follow through looks limited, however. Markets look a bit calmer as the panic following the news of levy of bank deposits in Cyprus as part of a EUR 10 billion bailout for the country, eased. No sign of bank runs elsewhere in the Eurozone and the go ahead to make the deposit levy more progressive (ie a higher levy on bigger deposit holders) while maintaining the total amount at around EUR 5.8 billion, have helped to calm tensions.

Nonetheless, today’s delayed vote in Cyprus’ parliament to approve the levy could provoke more nervousness especially as the outcome is too close to call. Attention will therefore remain firmly fixed on developments in Cyprus, with economic data taking a back seat. The highlights on the data front include likely gains in the German March ZEW investor confidence survey and US February housing starts and building permits.

Currency movements look to be limited ahead of the Cyprus vote and then the Fed FOMC outcome tomorrow. The EUR remains the weakest link, with gains in the currency likely to be sold into although support around EUR/USD 1.2876 is likely to hold unless the Cyprus vote fails to endorse the deposit levy. If this is the case, expect further sharp pressure on the EUR and a much bigger drop in the currency and risk currencies in general. European and Cyprus officials would have to back to the table but in the meantime panic would ensue.

The RBA minutes released this morning maintained that the door remains open for further policy rate cuts although they did note that the economy is responding to previous cuts with the impact having further to run. There is little in the minutes to suggest further easing is imminent. The RBA minutes are unlikely to dent the AUD which remains resilient having managed to remain well supported even despite the Cyprus panic. AUD/USD is likely to consolidate around current levels just below 1.0400 before embarking on further gains over coming weeks.

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USD buoyant

March 13, 2013 — Mitul Kotecha

After finally returning from a two week trip visiting clients across North America it appears that the USD continues to remain in buoyant mood. I have been highlighting the prospects for a stronger USD against major currencies for some time and this has been borne out by the strong USD performance since early February.

Despite a lackluster performance for US stocks overnight overall sentiment remains largely upbeat as reflected by the fact that my risk barometer has breached its lower threshold and has moved into risk loving territory. Similarly the VIX fear gauge is trading at multi year lows although it did move higher overnight.

The sharp drop in UK industrial production and a warning by the Bundesbank’s Weidmann that the Eurozone crisis was not over added a dose of caution to the market. On a more positive note the Baltic Dry Index is at its highest level so far this year, sending a positive signal for global growth expectations.

While there is still much wrangling in the US over budget proposals, and in Europe, Italian political uncertainty continues, markets remain focused on the positives of improving growth against the background of highly accommodative monetary policies. Nonetheless, the divergence between the US and Europe in terms of growth is set to continue. A likely bigger than forecast increase in US February retail sales in contrast to a bigger than forecast fall in Eurozone industrial production in January will attest to this.

EUR/USD has managed to garner a semblance of stability over recent days, with the currency pair finding it difficult to sustain any decline below the psychologically important 1.3000 level. The drop in EUR/USD over much of February has been more aggressive than implied by the performance of Eurozone peripheral bonds but this is no surprise given that this is not the biggest influence on the currency.

Instead the explanation for the EUR decline is found when viewing the move in US 2 year Treasury yields relative to 2 year bunds. The strong correlation with EUR/USD highlights this relationship, reflecting the impact of lower bund yields and higher Treasury yields. The EUR’s stability over recent days is therefore a function of a slight drop in the US yield advantage.

Given that the trend of firmer US data and weaker Eurozone data is set to continue, this stability is likely to be short lived. Our quantitative model suggests EUR/USD may rally in the short term but we suggest selling into it.

GBP/USD’s decline has continued unabated and there appear to be little to stand in the way of further weakness apart perhaps from the fact that a lot of bad news is priced in. Sentiment for GBP has clearly deteriorated as reflected in the CFTC IMM data revealing four straight weeks of negative positioning. The deviation with the 3 month average positioning has widened significantly, highlighting the pace of the move but also that the drop is beginning to look excessive.

Nonetheless, the bigger than expected drop in January industrial production data revealed yesterday has helped to compound the negativity towards the currency in the wake of deteriorating economic data and in turn heightened expectations of more BoE quantitative easing. Strong technical support around GBP/USD 1.4767 may hold in the short term but momentum indicators are showing no sign of a slowing in GBP selling pressure.

For GBP bulls (if there any left) there may be more value in looking to eventually re-enter long positions against EUR but we would not rush into this trade. .

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JPY and GBP to slip further

January 29, 2013 — Mitul Kotecha

Market gyrations were relatively limited overnight, with a rise in the VIX fear gauge and rise in Chinese equities the most notable market moves overnight. US data was mixed, with enthusiasm over a solid gain in December durable goods orders tempered by a drop in pending home sales. Notably the Baltic Dry Index has extended its decline over recent days, suggesting that the risk rally is losing some steam.

Nonetheless, core debt yields continue to test important psychological levels, with the 2% barrier in sight for 10 year US Treasuries. Data and events today include a US consumer confidence, for which we expect a slight decline in January, and various European Central Bank speakers. Additionally, the ECB’s main refinancing operation (MRO) will be scrutinised to determine bank’s health following last week’s LTRO payback. Overall, direction looks limited ahead of this week’s Fed FOMC decision and US jobs report.

The JPY’s drop has proven to be relentless. Despite being blamed for instigating a currency war Japanese officials are showing little let up in their push for JPY weakness. Although there has been some widening in the US Treasury and German bunds yield advantage over Japanese JGBs it does not fully account for the sharp JPY move. Interestingly speculative JPY short positions have actually lessened, implying that the drop in the JPY is attributable to other investor classes.

Additionally Japan has registered net portfolio inflows over recent weeks and so cannot explain the JPY’s drop. One factor that is weighing on the JPY is the improvement in risk appetite; USD/JPY is the most correlated currency with our risk barometer over the past 3 months. As risk and yield appetite has picked up JPY has effectively regained its mantle as funding currency. USD/JPY will face some tough resistance levels from around the 91.48 level, but so far the currency pair has made short work of breaking through resistance.

In one respect GBP’s drop against the USD and EUR reflects a reversal of safe haven flows similar to JPY. Notably however, GBP has not been correlated with the JPY. Its decline is more associated with renewed UK economic worries and in turn expectations of further Bank of England asset purchases, especially under the helm of a new governor. Moreover, speculation of a credit ratings downgrade has not been helpful to GBP. The net result is a reduction in speculative interest and further selling pressure.

Fortunately for the UK economy a weaker currency is no bad thing unless it provokes growing inflationary pressures. Given the dovish noises from incoming BoE Governor Carney, it looks as though there is little concern on this front. Manufacturing confidence data at the end of this week is unlikely to dispel economic concerns, leaving GBP vulnerable to further slippage.

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EUR and GBP slipping, JPY lower

January 10, 2013 — Mitul Kotecha

Slightly better market sentiment allowed equity markets in the US to close higher in the wake of earnings helped too boost sentiment but overall direction remains limited ahead of a plethora of earnings releases over coming days and more immediately the European Central Bank and Bank of England meetings today.

Fed speakers will also be watched closely, while bond auctions in Spain and Italy will be another key influence for Eurozone markets. Meanwhile, the VIX ‘fear gauge’ rebounded slightly but remains at a low level while the USD index continued its ascent and is likely to continue to remain firm.

The ECB and BoE are set to leave policy unchanged today but this will not prevent both EUR and GBP from losing ground against the USD. The principle risk to GBP revolves around the UK economy. Weaker data releases have restrained GBP both against the USD and EUR.

Given the likelihood that growth will not recover quickly this will continue to act as a weight on GBP in the months ahead. Only the fact that the Eurozone economy will look even weaker will allow GBP to appreciate versus EUR while relative US economic outperformance will ensure a relatively softer GBP versus USD.

The breach of GBP/USD’s 100 day moving average level around 1.6061 is a trigger for a steeper decline. Conversely EUR/GBP may register some further short term upside but technical indicators suggest a relatively flat picture for the currency pair over coming weeks.

It is clear that the Japanese authorities have a fresh determinism to weaken the JPY as reflected by the news that Japan purchased bonds issued by the European Stability Mechanism. Additionally pressure on the Bank of Japan to implement a 2% inflation target has not eased, with Prime Minister Abe continuing to highlight the prospects of a joint accord between the government and BoJ.

Reflecting these factors and the higher starting point for USD/JPY I have revised my forecast and now look for the currency pair to end 2013 at 92.00 versus 85.00 previously. It will not be a one way bet for the JPY, however. Its drop against the USD looks excessive especially as it has largely been driven by expectations rather than actual policy change. There is scope for disappointment should policy be less aggressive than hoped for.

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Sell USD / Asia FX on rallies

January 9, 2013 — Mitul Kotecha

The biggest move this year appears to have come from the VIX ‘fear gauge’ which has dropped sharply contributing to an overall improvement in risk appetite. Although the VIX dropped further overnight equity sentiment overall continues to sour as fiscal cliff euphoria faded further and markets brace for the reality of likely protracted negotiations to raise the debt ceiling and avert huge spending cuts.

Caution over a plethora of fourth quarter earnings reports over coming weeks is also limiting upside for risk assets. Economic drivers were thin on the ground overnight but weak German exports data (which likely contributes to an overall decline in GDP in Q4) an increase in Eurozone unemployment and rumours of a French ratings downgrade did not help.

In the US the news was a little better as small business confidence reversed its sharp November drop. A limited data slate today will leave markets focussed on upcoming earnings, with consensus estimates for Q4 at a relatively low 2.9% QoQ.

Asian currencies have registered mixed performances so far this year. Resistance from some Asian central banks, notably Korea, has limited the appreciation of currencies. The incentive to prevent further strength has increased especially as a key competitor the JPY has weakened.

Maintaining its robust performance over 2012 the PHP has been the best Asian FX performer so far in 2013 followed by the THB. Similarly the IDR has maintained its negative performance registered last year. SGD is also likely to underperform further as the currency finds itself being increasingly used as a funding currency for taking long positions in other Asian FX.

We note that risk appetite has a limited correlation with Asian currencies at present but firm capital inflows will continue to provide support, with a sell USD / Asia FX on rallies environment set to persist.

Posted in Asian currencies, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, US administration. Tags: , , , , , . Leave a Comment »
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