A further blow to risk appetite

Amid a market that is already very nervous the much weaker than expected US ISM manufacturing confidence index (51.3 versus 56.0 consensus) taken together with the weaker Chinese non manufacturing purchasing managers index (53.4 versus 54.6 prior) dealt another blow to risk appetite.

Consequently the VIX fear gauge has spiked to its highest level since the end of 2012 and our risk barometer has moved swiftly into risk hating territory. US Treasury yields have continued to drop, with the 10 year yield having slid by around 45 basis points so far this year.

Suffice to say investors should steer clear of risk assets over the short term as the turmoil does not look like it will be over anytime soon. A combination of tapering, a confluence of country specific emerging market country concerns and weaker growth in China provide the backdrop for a volatile few weeks if not longer, ahead.

The main event today is the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting where we look for no change in policy. However, the key events of the week are yet to come, with the European Central Bank and Bank of England policy decisions and US January jobs report all on tap over coming days. In brief, no change in policy is expected from either central bank and payrolls are expected to come in around 200k.

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