Although markets are quietening down and liquidity is thinning ahead of the holidays there are still a few important and potentially market moving events this week. These include several central bank meetings, with the Fed FOMC at the top of the pile on Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to hike by 25bp to between 2.25% and 2.50% and remove any remaining forward guidance.
A few weeks ago there was little doubt that the Fed would hike rates this month, but since then it has looked like less of a done deal. Dovish comments from Fed officials suggest that there will be a lot of attention on Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference, especially following his recent comments that interest rates are “just below neutral”. Although the Fed is likely to hike, it is likely to be seen as a dovish hike, which ought to leave the USD without much support.
In Asia there are three central bank meetings in focus. On Wednesday the Bank of Thailand (BoT) is likely to hike its benchmark by 25bps to 1.75%, largely due to financial imbalances (household debt and bad loans) rather than inflation concerns. On Thursday Taiwan’s central bank meeting (CBC) is likely to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.375%, with low and declining inflation, suggesting the long held status quo will be maintained.
Also on Thursday I expect no change in policy by Bank Indonesia. Inflation is clearly non-threatening from BI’s perspective and unless the IDR weakens anew, BI will increasingly be in a position to keep its powder dry. Elsewhere in Asia, the Bank of Japan will be in focus. No change in policy is widely expected on Thursday, with the central bank still well away from any tightening in policy given still low inflation.